Pinstripe Potentials

Just to get it up top...

2007-04-22T15:09:00.000-07:00

I'm currently writing for Pending Pinstripes at the Most Valuable Network. I looked back and saw that nearly 300 people per day were still checking this site.

The new address is http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

Yankee Blogger Fantasy League

2007-03-12T16:07:00.000-07:00

I'm participating in a fantasy league set up by Patrick from Yanksblog. Mike from River Ave Blues reviewed his team here. I drafted the following team:

C Kenji Johjima
1b Mark Teixeira
2b Chone Figgins
SS Julio Lugo
3b Bill Hall
OF Lance Berkman
OF Jermaine Dye - accidently picked
OF Corey Patterson
Util Derrek Lee

SP Johan Santana
SP Jeremy Bonderman
RP J.J. Putz
RP Eric Gagne
P Brett Myers
P Curt Schilling
P Rich Hill
BN Javy Vazquez
BN Mark Prior
BN Josh Beckett
BN Tim Hudson
BN Ian Snell

I love my team. I really think that I have a big edge in this league with the guys that I drafted. I have three bona fide first round sluggers in Berkman, Lee, Teixeira, and Jermaine Dye should give me at least 30/100/100. I've got two huge SB threats in Figgins and Patterson, plus Lugo. My batting average won't be pretty, but it shouldn't kill me too much in a head to head league.

My pitching is beautiful. This is a standard 5x5 league, so I was giddy to pick up Santana with my 4th overall pick. I think that Santana is top-2 material. Bonderman is a big breakout candidate, and he was still damn good last season. Putz is my primary closer, and I'm betting on a Gagne comeback season. I love the Ks out of Schilling, Myers, and Hill, and their ERA/WHIPs should be good as a result.

Overall, I think my team is going to be a powerhouse. I may be the new kid on the blogging block, but this championship shall be mine!

It's Official

2007-03-04T19:43:00.000-08:00

I am officially writing for MVN at Pending Pinstripes as of tonight. I will still update this blog occassionally (writing about the MLB Yankees), but not as frequently. Besides the change in address, don't expect a whole lot of change. Thanks for sticking with me this far, and I am looking forward to this next step!

EJ

John Sickels on Phil Hughes

2007-03-04T06:33:00.000-08:00

I'm a fan of John Sickels, though I personally think that he really stretches to fill his blog with new material every day. There is a lot of fluff in between the good stuff. Sickels is a genuine prospect expert in the stat-head mold, and his opinion is golden. One of those fluff pieces that he likes to project his opinion on he calls his "Crystal Ball". He'll take a prospect or young player and try to guess what he thinks the player's career will look like.

The Crystal Balls are incredibly arbitrary and ultimately meaningless as a whole. Sickels projects things like trades and injuries. The important information that can he gained from Sickels in this case is about a player's peak. How good does Sickels think this player will be?

Sickels recently took a look at Phil Hughes. He predicted Hughes to go down with Tommy John at age 26, ruining the better part of his upper peak. This is a meaningless besides that Sickels expects any young pitcher to have injury problems. What does Sickels expect out of Hughes?

First off, he's going to have a transition period to the majors. He'll pitch a little over 200 innings of 4.20 ERA ball his first two seasons. Starting his third season (age 23) Hughes will put together three bonafide ace seasons, where he should win a Cy Young or two. Sickels has him throwing 230 innings of 3.00-3.15 ERA ball. He sees him retaining his excellent control in the majors (2.20 BB/9 during this time). He sees him striking out about 7.5-8.0 per 9. After the Tommy John surgery, Hughes has a few ace-like seasons, but for the most part becomes an innings eater. He finishes with a David Cone type career.

I disagree with Sickels on a few things here. First off, he's not going to the minors in 2008. He may very well post an ERA in the low 4s, and the Yankees very well may put an innings limit on him, but he's not making only 25 starts. Second, I don't think that Hughes is a Tommy John risk at his peak. He has no mechanical red flags, no max-effort red flags, and no workload red flags at this point. He is as good of a bet to stay healthy as any top-flight prospect. Third, I don't see Hughes as maxing out at 8.00 K/9. Hughes doesn't strike a ton out by accident in the minors. I see him with the occassional 8.50-9.00 K/9 season, which will result in one or two sub-3.00 ERA seasons.

I do agree with Sickels that Hughes will become a major innings eater due to control. I love how Sickels sees him maintaining a league-low HR rate of 15-20 in a 230 innings season. Bottom line, Sickels thinks that Hughes is the real deal, and he very clearly is not a Yankee fan.

In Transition

2007-03-03T20:24:00.000-08:00

Yeah, it's been a slow week. Spring training has started and we're all getting excited for baseball again. I'm still in the process of transitioning over to Pending Pinstripes, but the webmaster at MVN is being really slow about it. I have a few things prepared, but I'm saving some minor league analysis for the new site.

On a plus note, there is a cool little blog tracking site out there called striketwo.net. They track and rank blogs by "influence" - or the number of incoming links to the blog. Somehow the stars have aligned to make me the #4 Yankee Blog on the internet today (Though the omission of Peter Abraham's blog is a crime). I'm still far behind the "big three" of RLYW, Bronx Banter, and Yanksblog, (and WasWatching is usually up there) and will remain so for some time.

Bragging rights? Yeah, that's pretty much all this means. The numbers fluctuate from day to day. But #4 baby... #4.

For now, it's simply a matter of waiting for MVN. My apologies. I'll be posting a lot on spring training this week.

Prospect Profile: Eduardo Nunez

2007-02-28T08:59:00.000-08:00

(I'm testing out a new profile format, so tell me what you think. I'm thinking about redoing some of my earlier profiles, which frankly suck, in this format.)

Age: 19 (20 in June)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 170 lbs
Drafted: Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2004 at age 16.
Position: Shortstop
Throws: Right
Bats: Switch

Offense: Nunez opened a lot of eyes by hitting .313/.365/.427 for Staten Island in 2005 at the age of 18. Staten Island is a really funky place to hit. Based on BBTF's Minor League Park Factors, the park does not make it harder to hit a double, home run, or single, but has a .87 park factor - among the lowest in the minors, and roughly equal to PETCO's park factor in 2006. The weather and sun conditions in Staten Island make it a lot easier for pitchers to strike hitters out. For this reason, Nunez's line was pretty amazing. PECOTA jumped on him, and Nunez shot up everyone's depth charts. The Yankees sent him straight to Tampa, where Nunez categorically flopped. He hit .184/.223/.340, showing power but not much else. He was striking out like he did not in Staten Island (28 in 37 games vs 43 in 73). He didn't do much else when he was sent down to Charleston, hitting .227/.278/.294. Nunez has good offensive potential, but 2006 may have proven that 2005 was a just luck.

Defense: Nunez is a shortstop, with plenty of arm strength and range, but is still learning how to use his skills. As is typical with shortstops his age, Nunez needs to work on footwork and consistency. He has been struggling defensively, but most people believe that he will eventually become a very good defender at the position. The Yankees will not attempt to move Nunez from shortstop any time soon. They have a wealth of players at 2nd base and centerfield, and can afford to be patient with the very young Nunez.

Health: Nunez stayed healthy in 2006, playing 127 games. His struggles were not caused by injury.

Comparison: I think that Nunez has the potential to become a Felipe Lopez type hitter.

My Take: Nunez was rushed to Tampa in 2006, there is no question. His placement there was less of an endorsement of his advanced style and more of a neccessity brought on by first round pick C.J. Henry's level of rawness. The Yankees did not want to slow down Henry down by alternating the two at Charleston, or sending Henry to a short season league. So they gambled on Nunez (and Battle, and Vechionacci) and got hosed. He was way too young for his league - a league and a ballpark which traditionally murder hitters. He may have gotten a little unlucky (.197 BABIP), but there were few bright spots in his performance except for a .268/.318/.439 line with runners in scoring position. There might be some future brightness signified by his .340 slugging average despite hitting just .184. In the Florida State League, that is some serious power (5 2b, 3 3b, 4 HR in 37 games, 21/13/17 over 155 games), but the lack of plate discipline is very concerning. Nunez is going to have to learn to walk to go with his good strikeout rate (career 119 K in 200 games). I didn't rank Nunez top-30 because I am not sold that his batting average driven 2005 is the real Nunez. He didn't hit in the DSL in 2004, and only showed faint glimmers of hitting ability in 2006.

What is our ideal lineup?

2007-02-27T11:25:00.000-08:00

Joe Torre is going to be given a wealth of hitters to score him runs. If things break his way, he could have the best lineup in baseball history. That does not mean he is without his challenges. Torre has just two regular right handed batters (Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez) and one switch hitter (Jorge Posada). Beyond that, the Yankees have all left handed hitters.

Some of those left handers handle southpaws better than others. Bobby Abreu loses half his production. Robby Cano goes from a .363/.378/.581 hitter to a .287/.328/.372 hitter. Hideki Matsui loses about 50 points of OPS. Jason Giambi becomes a bench player (.213/.356/.472) against them.

Of course, there is good news. Johnny Damon pretty much hits lefties the same as righties. Derek Jeter (.339/.405/.533) and Alex Rodriguez (.301/.423/.600) kill them. Jorge Posada loses only a bit of production vs lefties.

The Yankees also have Melky Cabrera, for a young player, hit lefties pretty well (.286/.359/.365 vs .278/.361/.405 against righties) , which is a sign that he just might kill lefties in the future. Rule V pick Josh Phelps hit .288/.343/.551 against lefties.

This gives the Yankees some room to work. I don't see Joe Torre doing any real crazy lineup manuevering. It just isn't his thing. So I am going to post what I think is the optimal - and likely - "standard" lineup. After that I'm going to suggest one against lefties.

"Standard" Lineup

Damon - He's leading off, even if he's be better served later in the lineup.
Jeter - Maybe he realy is fit for the #2 spot? Don't mess with what's working
Abreu - Right between the two big right handed hitters. Abreu will post a .410+ OBP, setting up runners for the big sluggers.
Rodriguez - Arod came in to camp this year leaner, and I expect him to be meaner. His performance will look more like 2005 than 2006. With the L/R splits, he has to hit 4th.
Giambi - Hopefully he takes to DH well.
Matsui - His past reputation, and ability to hit LHP a little better put him above Cano.
Posada - Need that switch hitter.
Cano - .343 hitter batting 8th. Damn straight.
Minky - I can't spell his real name.
Bench - Cabrera, Phelps, Cairo

In a perfect world, I'd bat Cano 6th, but he won't. He won't get as many RBI opportunities and I would like him to, but the pressure will at least be off him.

Doug Mientkiewicz (had to copy and past his name) is an interesting figure. I have Josh Phelps making the roster over Andy Phillips. This means that Phelps and Giambi are our only alternatives to Mientkiewicz. Doug hits lefties and righties equally well - or not so well. He'll put up a reliable .350 OBP/410 Slg against them. Sucks for a 1st baseman, but his defense is the reason he is there. Against righties and when Wang is on the mound, he has to be in the lineup.

So, my lineup against lefties, when Wang is not on the mound:

Damon
Jeter
Abreu - DH
Rodriguez
Matsui
Phelps - 1b
Posada
Cano - Until he learns to hit lefties better (which usually takes until a player is 25-26), he has to sit back in the lineup
Cabrera
Bench: Giambi, Minky, Cairo

Yeah, Phelps moves up. I'm not totally excited about him at 1st, but it'll be a neccessity. If Wang (or if we really think it's neccessary, Pettitte or Pavano) is on the mound, personally I would sit Abreu and let Phelps DH.

When Posada sits, these lineups look significantly worse. What could the Yankees do to improve their overall situation? They could definately use a right hander who can play 1st base reasonably well (Cody Ehlers, please hurry!). Luckily, the only really dangerous starters in the AL East are Erik Bedard and Scott Kazmir. The Red Sox are all right handed, and the Blue Jays have just Chacin. The O's have Loewen, who killed the Yankees last year, but he was playing way over his head. I don't really consider Cassy Fossum much of a pitcher, period. So the Yankees lucked out.

Of course, specialized bullpens could hurt us. Joe Torre will need to bite the bullet and pinch hit for some of our better players late in games. Josh Phelps is going to need to adapt to this role.

One final note: if Andy Phillips makes the roster instead of Phelps, we get hurt a lot. He is a career .500 OPS against lefties. Sure, he can play 1st, but we need the potent bat of Phelps.

Fantasy League Draft

2007-02-26T09:56:00.000-08:00

Yep, we've drafted. This was a huge league, with 15 teams, and we somehow got our draft done in under 2 hours. Good job guys!

I drafted a pretty risky team, but with a lot of upside.

1. Albert Pujols - First overall pick, gives me a lot of room to take risks in the 2-4 rounds.

2. Hanley Ramirez - Since I was able to get Pujols, I was able to take a decent risk with my late 2nd round pick. Ramirez is going to steal me a lot of bases, but the rest of his performance is up in the air. He could give me 20 home runs, 50 steals, 120 runs, and a .300 average, or he could give me a .270 average, 90 runs, 10 home runs, and 50 steals. It's a risk worth taking I think. Plus, he had a killer second half, solving his strikeout problems. Premium position too.

3. Bobby Abreu - Since my strategy usually revolves around a lot of risk, I needed a solid all around hitter to go with Pujols. In such a deep league, outfielders are going to be at a major premium, so he helps me there. With any luck, I'll get .290/100/20/100/30 out of him.

4. Felix Hernandez - A risky pick, but I love Felix. He's a 2.50+ GB/FB guy, who could strike out over a batter per inning. That's Kevin Brown type stuff. Seattle's ballpark will help him too. He's a breakout pick, but I think pretty safe to do so. Gives me 5 category support.

5. Rickie Weeks - My first real gamble. Weeks was killed by injuries last season, but still managed to hit .279. I'm betting that his .320/.435/.655 line at AAA at age 22 was not an abberation. Weeks hasn't had injury concerns in the past, and is ready for a breakout. He'll also lead off in front of a decent little Brewers lineup. He could give him .290/100/20/60/40. He's a risk, but I think he will work out for me big. 2b is really thin this year too.

6. Trevor Hoffman - I needed a closer, and the Padres use Hoffman in a way that is perfect for fantasy baseball. 40 saves are mine! I'm crossing my fingers that he doesn't break down, because he's my only real closer.

7. Aaron Harang - People didn't realize it, but Harang led the NL in strikeouts. If the Reds ever learn to play defense, he'll be one of the better fantasy picks in the NL. He is durable too.

8. Raul Ibanez - Kind of a risky pick. I'm pretty sure that Ibanez, batting 4th for the Mariners, will give me at least .290/80/25/90, but he could end up giving me 2nd round numbers.

9. Mike Piazza - Kind of a value pick. He got killed by Petco last year - he was a monster away from there. Combine that with the designated hitter, and we'll see Piazza put up some nice numbers for a catcher.

10. Adrian Beltre - With Alex Gordon snatched away from me, I had to find a 3rd baseman. Beltre is a good as a bet as any left at the time, and has a pretty high ceiling. His 2nd half was awesome last year, and he may have a chip on his shoulder with that big contract. Not happy about him batting 2nd though. Hopefully he'll be moved to 3rd once Guillen falters.

11. Jonathon Papelbon - Closer or Starter, Papelbon should be pretty good. I'm crossing my fingers (fantasy wise, not as a Yankee fan) that he'll be somewhat healthy. It still hurts to draft a Sox player though.

12. Frank Thomas - I didn't expect Thomas to be around this long. Hey, I'll take my 40 HR and 120 RBIs if Thomas is healthy. Sure, it's a big risk, but could pay off. Once he found his stroke last year, he raked. He won't have 2 years of rust to shake off in 2007. Toronto should give him some RBI opportunies and protection that he didn't get in Oakland.

13. Freddy Garcia - With so many risky starting picks, I needed a good fall back, reliable option. Garcia just doesn't get injured, and is moving to the National League. His ERA should fall below 4.00. He won't strike a ton out, but the Phillies will help him win some games.

14. Jeremey Hermida - There weren't a whole lot of good OF remaining, and I may need some stolen bases. Hermida is a reasonable bet to be healthy and break out in 2007. A risk, but I can always find some 3rd OF on the Pirates or somewhere that breaks out.

15. Bob Howry - Solid ratios out of a RP, and Howry might take over the Cub's closer job in 2007. I'm not entirely happy with the pick, but maybe it'll work out.

16. Jeremy Sowers - One of the game's top young pitchers, but often overlooked. Cleveland is going to support him on offense and defense a lot, and Sowers has a head start with 13 MLB starts under his belt. His WHIP will be solid, and his milb numbers are crazy.

17. Justin Duchscherer - Another Bob Howry type. If Street goes down or is ineffective, Justin will get saves. He'll provide me solid all around relief work.

18. Joe Saunders - Kind of a bad pick, but I'm a Saunders fan. I think he will be a solid MLB starter. This is kind of a "pick of personal priviledge"

19. Jason Jennings - Between moving away from Coors and the great Astros defense, I'm hoping that Jennings can repeat last year's success. He's another solid starter who I can slip in and out daily.

20. Boof Bonser - Can you believe that this guy was traded with Liriano and Nathan or A.J.? I can't. If he breaks out, I'll have a really solid pitcher. Lots of strikeouts too.

21. Anthony Reyes - Another young pitcher who I am hoping will break out. If two of the four guys I picked work out, I'm set. Reyes is all but promised a spot in St. Louis this year, and will cash in on his potential.

22. Roberto Hernandez - Hoping that he gets the saves for Cleveland, because I'm light on them.

The key to fantasy baseball is correctly predicting future success. I think I've taken a lot of risk which will correctly predict future success. Matt Holliday and Brandon Webb served me well last year.

How Good is Bobby Abreu?

2007-02-25T11:28:00.000-08:00

Back in 2004, Bobby Abreu was one of the major's best players. He did everything. He hit .301/.428/.544, with 30 home runs and 40 stolen bases, only being caught 5 times. In terms of a power/speed/patience combination, Abreu was the major's best.

When the Yankees traded for him last season, Abreu wasn't the same player he was in 2004. Abreu was still a great hitter, but had seen much of his power dissolve despite the favorable ballpark that he played in. He won the Home Run Derby in 2005, he hit just 24 home runs that year, and only 15 in 2006. His on base skills were retained, but Abreu clearly had left his prime.

The Phillies were eager to get rid of the contract, and the Yankees needed a right fielder. He was hitting just .277/.427/.434 on the season with only 8 home runs in 98 games. He was one of the Yankee's best hitters after the trade, hitting .330/.419/.507 with 7 HR in 58 games.

Was it Yankee Stadium? Abreu was moving from Citizens Bank park (where he hit just .267/.419/.426), so I can't see Yankee Stadium (where he hit .299/.349/.474) making a huge difference. In reality, Abreu was probably profiting from the unfamiliarity of American League pitchers. He might have been reinvigorated by a new team, but I'm more inclined for the former explanation. It should be noted that outside of Citizens Bank park, Abreu had to play a lot of games in Florida, Washington, and Shea, all major pitchers parks.

Abreu has a lot of value for a lot of reasons. First off, he should age well. Power and patience are traditionally the last skills to decline, and athletic players age better than others. Abreu still has his speed, and hasn't slowed in taking walks with age. Not to mention that I don't think he has ever been on the DL. We can probably expect his HR power to return to about 20, although we should remember that he averaged less than 25 per year during his career. His ability to get on base is his primary skill, and he's as good as anyone in that regard. His career OBP is .412, and he hasn't ever been below .393 for a full season.

He's sure make a good #1/2 hitter, but Abreu will likely bat 3rd. This isn't a terrible idea, because Giambi and Alex Rodriguez will have a lot of runners to hit in. The protection both in front and behind him should help Abreu hit a little more comfortably.

What do the projection systems say?

CHONE: .279/.406/.439, 17 HR
ZiPS: .287/.414/.466, 20 HR
Marcel: .289/.417/.480, 19 HR
PECOTA: Averaged in
Average: .282/.407/.459, 17 HR

Again, hat tip to RLYW for the technique.

I think that CHONE and PECOTA are too pessimistic. Abreu isn't going to slug .450 for a full season. I really like that ZiPS line. All the systems seem to agree that Abreu will suffer some inevitable decline in batting average, due to age. They seem to believe that his power decline in 2006 will not become the norm, and they seem to agree that he's a .400 OBP guy still. Beyond that, we're just talking about small differences.

It should also be noted that Abreu is fighting for another contract. He has an option for 2008, which the Yankees would probably want to pick up (unless Melky breaks out in a big way, or Abreu flops), but he may find himself a free agent. I don't like to underestimate what a contract year can do to the player.

I am going to take that Marcel line and cross my fingers. I predict .289/.417/.480.

I've decided that I will continue to both maintain this blog (where I will write about the MLB Yankees and my general baseball thoughts) while I write for Pending Pinstripes. Stay tuned! I plan on writing my lineup analysis tonight, and we have a fantasy draft at 8:30!

Not Gone Yet! How Good is Cano?

2007-02-23T18:37:00.000-08:00

It'll be a few more days before I transfer over to Pending Pinstripes at MVN, at which time I will no longer be able to write about the MLB Yankees to any great length, so I'd like to take a look at Robinson Cano. Depending on how much time I spend, I am considering keeping a second blog going for my Major League opinions (or I'll just stick to the message boards).

I was complaining about Cano's plate discipline at the begining of last season. He just wasn't selecting pitches to drive. He would hit a lot of singles off balls way outside, and a few nasty breaking pitches, but he didn't really generate any power. Something changed early-June, and I think Don Mattingly deserves a lot of credit. Cano began laying off those first pitch balls in the dirt, and stopped getting himself in to bad counts. He hit .398 that month, but still wasn't driving the ball for lots and lots of extra base hits. I went away to the woods (I ain't around during the summer) expecting it to be an abberation.

Then Cano gets injured. He must have spent some time working with Mattingly on something, because all of the sudden he started to rip the ball. He hit 11 home runs and 24 doubles over his final 54 games following his injury. That's equal to a 30+ HR and 70+ doubles over a full season! Cano raked. He slugged .615 after the all star break. There is a strong argument to be made that he was the best player in baseball after he returned.

Do I think that Cano is that good? Hell no. But I do think that, if properly coached, Cano has the potential to become an absolute monster at the plate. I was very skeptical last season, but after watching those final two months, holy crap I was impressed. Kevin Long is a very good hitting coach who probably deserves credit for Cano's success in the minor leagues. Between him and Mattingly, I want to see if they can keep Cano selective at the plate. I don't expect him to start taking walks or anything - it's against his natural style - but I do want to see him take pitches in the dirt.

I think that we need to remember a few very positive things about Cano. First off, he is incredibly young. He turned 24 at the end of last season, and could have 2-3 years of improvement ahead of him. Second, he's done things that precious few young hitters have done. SG at RLYW did an excellent analysis of this, putting Cano on a list with guys like Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Don Mattingly, Vlad Guerrero, Al Kaline, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, George Brett, and Miguel Cabrera. Bad hitters don't hit .340 at age 23.

I would not be at all shocked to see Cano dominate the AL next year. I could see a .330/.360/.550 line out of him without exceeding my reasonable expectations. I could also see 30 home runs out of him without shocking me. At the same time, Cano's "swing away Merril" approach could lead to massive regression and variance in his performance. Some years he may dominate, while some he may bat .290/.320/.430 (which is still better than an average 2b). We'll have to see what Cano does with his bad habits.

What do the projection systems say?

CHONE: .312/.349/.488, 17 HR in 522 AB
Marcel: .321/.364 /.497, 15 HR in 509 AB
PECOTA: Averaged In (using the RLYW technique, thanks SG!)
ZiPs: .315/.343/.493, 18 HR in 568 AB
Average: .313/.350/.485

I am going to deviate from the projection systems here. They all seem to believe that Cano's ability to hit for high average is going to stay, but the power won't be anything too special. Maybe it's my Yankee-blinders, but I think that Mattingly and Long will find a way to keep most of Cano's late-season power surge in 2007. I think that Cano will suffer from an inevitable drop in batting average, but will hit for more extra bases. All of those projection systems assume Cano missing 10-20 games, mostly because he landed on the DL in 2006 and spent April in the minors in 2005. Projected over 155 or so games, those systems almost all predict 20 home runs on the nose. I'm not projecting a huge increase in Cano's power over them.

My prediction? .320/.350/.530, 25 home runs. In the Boston vs Yankee showdown, Cano may provide us with the best competitive edge over our rival.

We might just get one more "How Good is This guy?" post in this weekend. For once, I'm not doing anything important. How does Bobby Abreu sound?

Moving... Again?

2007-02-22T12:25:00.000-08:00

I've enjoyed my time here at Pinstripes Potentials. Aparantly, I've been able to fool people in to thinking that I know something about baseball. After many spelling errors, typos, and the occasional scouting report, I have recieved an invitation to take Mike Axisa's spot at Pending Pinstripes on the Most Valuable Network.

It's a bigger gig, and will give me the opportunity to write for an established site. I first began blogging a little less than a year ago, and enjoyed every second of it. I originally started the Fire Joe Torre Blog to think outloud about the New York Yankees. I never really intended to become a "prominent" blogger, as I've heard people call me. I still think that I am overrated.

Besides the change of address, my loyal readers won't notice a whole lot of change. I have some exciting things planned for the next few weeks (If everything works out well, some really exciting things).

Depending upon how long it takes for the MVN webmaster to add me, this will probably be the last post in this website. Thanks for sticking with me!

Tampa Yankees Preview and some more

2007-02-21T15:41:00.000-08:00

I figure that I should start my pre-season previews of the four Yankee full season leagues with the most certain of the teams, Tampa. The A+ Yankees finished 2nd in their division in 2006, going 41-28. Tampa fans saw a solid team of players, but after Phil Hughes, Marco Vechionacci, Brett Gardner, and Tim Battle were either demoted or promoted, didn't have a lot of players to really get excited about. That will change in 2007.

I am going to be saying this a lot in my previews. The Tampa Yankees have the most exciting pitching staff in the Florida State League. The starting rotation should look something like this (in no particular order):

1. Ian Kennedy
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Zach Kroenke
4. George Kontos
5. Tim Norton

Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain should both move fast. If everything goes right, they will be ready to be promoted to Tampa by the begining of the summer. By then, Daniel McCutchen should be off his suspension and ready to play again. He will take a spot. Rolando Japa and Erik Abreu both may have an outside chance at Norton's spot.

In the bullpen, we'll see a lot of converted starters. Eric Wordekemper is an underrated right hander who may make a solid middle reliever in the majors. R.J. Swindle, the submariner southpaw, throws a nasty 55 mph curveball and dominated A- ball last season. Nick Peterson will likely make the jump from Staten Island, despite horrendous control problems. The Yankees haven't said much about David Robertson, but his 600,000 dollar bonus might send him straight to A+ despite not making his professional debut in 2006.

The lineup should look something like this:

LF: Jose Tabata
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: Tim Battle*
3b: Marcos Vechionacci
SS: Eduardo Nunez**
2b: Reegie Corona
1st: Juan Miranda
C: Irwil Rojas
DH: Ben Jones

* - The whole outfield could be any combination of the three.
** - Although he flopped at Tampa last year, I can't see the Yankees demoting him

That is one hell of a lineup. Hopefully Tabata, Vechionacci, and Battle will all finally have their break out seasons and hit for some power. Juan Miranda and Ben Jones should both be good for 25 home runs, and the overall defense is as good as it gets. Between the ballpark effects, the Florida State League in general, and that outfield defense, we may have to adjust some pitching ERAs way up.

Tampa is the FSL favorite right now. That is pretty certain. How far they go will be determined by a) How long Kennedy, Chamberlain, and to a lesser extent, Miranda stay at the level and b) If the young guys finally learn to hit for power like they are supposed to.

R.J. Swindle could move very quickly. He's got a lot of experience in high-level independent league play.

Most Interesting Storyline: Will one of George Kontos or Tim Norton turn their short season success in to a top-10 rating next season?

Darkhorse: Eduardo Nunez was a top-8 prospect on a lot of lists this year. He flopped in 2006, but has so much talent on both sides of the ball that he could regain his place. Was I wrong not to list him top-30?

My Personal Favorite Prospect: Ian Kennedy. Way underrated.

The fantasy league drafts on Sunday at 8:30. I sent out emails for 14 spots, including myself. We're still waiting on a few people to register. If you want to be included in the league and did not get my email, post in the comments section below and I'll put you on the waiting list.

How Good is Kei Igawa?

2007-02-19T16:12:00.000-08:00

Kei Igawa is our biggest wildcard for the 2007 season. The Yankees invested almost 50 million dollars in him, and expect him to perform. He's no Daisuke Matsuzaka, but what can we expect from Kei Igawa?

This is a lot harder to predict than Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, or Chris Britton. Igawa throws an 89-92 mph fastball, a plus changeup, an above average curvebal and an average sliderl. He has average command, maybe a little better. If he didn't throw with his left hand, no one would give him a second look.

However, the Yankees thought that Igawa was worth a posting fee twice the size of Ichiro Suzuki's prior to the 2001 season. Why were they so confident? Igawa posted some very good looking numbers in Japan. In 1,244 NPB innings, he struck out 1,174 batters and posted a 3.15 ERA. However, that ERA is skewed by two bad years in 2004 and 2005, where he posted ERAs over 3.73 and saw his strikeouts dip. His ERA held under 3.00 for every other year in his career, and Igawa led his league in strikeouts three times. Afte the two poor seasons, he rebounded to post a 2.97 ERA, and 194 strikeouts in 204 innings. He consistently posted K/BB ratios above 3.50.

Let's put these numbers in perspective here. First off, strikeouts are a little harder to come by in Japan. Japanese hitters tend to make contact much more than major league hitters. As a result, they don't hit a lot of extra base hits, and pitchers overall find it easier to prevent runs than in the MLB. If the level of competition in Japan is equal to somewhere between AA and AAA, Igawa's 2006 would be about equal to posting a mid-3s ERA in the International League, while his bad seasons would be about equal to a high-4s ERA.

I don't know what to think about Igawa. Although he looks absolutely badass, there isn't a whole lot very special about him. But he's a lefty, and has four major league average or better pitches with average command and no makeup problems. Coupled with his impressive statistical record, I think that Igawa will overcome his lack of velocity or incredible command and be an above average to average pitcher.

But didn't Hideki Irabu look like that too? Irabu had major control problems, even in Japan. He would walk 30-40% more batters than Igawa currently does. In addition, Irabu wasn't all that bad when he was healthy. He was a valued member of the 1998 squad. Being a lefty doesn't hurt Igawa either. In the end, I think that we have to trust the Yankee front office staff a little bit. They spent 26 million dollars on a player who has never played in American, so I think Cashman has to have some confidence in him. Considering the luxery tax, Igawa's contract could be a real value. Igawa costs the Yankees 10.8 million per season including the 40% tax, equal to a 5 year, 32.4 million dollar contract signed by a normal free agent. Considering that Ted Lilly cost a decent amount more than that, this is a good deal.

I'm not going to bother with the projection systems on this one. Igawa is a wild card in every sense of the word, and regression analysis won't get us far. I predict:

31 starts, 186 innings, 172 strikeouts, 72 walks, 4.34 ERA.

I'm a little more optimistic than most, but in the end I expect to be right.

Fantasy League?

2007-02-13T15:07:00.000-08:00

Would anyone here be up for a Yahoo! fantasy baseball league? I'd be interested in running an all-PP league. Course, your all going to get destroyed by me, but it'll be an interesting run for 2nd place :)

Let me know in the comments section.

I'm going to be away this weekend, but I want to try and get two articles out of the way before then. I will be looking at Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano. Sorry Steve Jackson fans, he's going to have to wait until Monday. I'll probably have my Kei Igawa thoughts up late tonight (I'll write it during Mythbusters... best show on TV).

Prospect Profile: Ross Ohlendorf

2007-02-11T09:47:00.000-08:00

Age: 24
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 235
Drafted: 4th Round in 2004 out of Princeton by the Diamondbacks
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Ohlendorf has undergone a transformation since he first began pitching. A superb athlete, Ohlendorf only moved to the mound in his early high school years, and quickly started throwing very hard. He was clocked around 92 or so by the time he graduated, and he drew a lot of interested from big-time Texas programs near his home in Austin. However, Ross cared much more about academics, and was able to get in to Princeton on his academic qualifications alone. It turns out that was the ideal choice for his future baseball career, as the Princeton team was more interested in cultivating their players rather than cutthroat winning. Ohlendorf eased his arm in to that of a true power pitcher, pumping his fastball up to 98 mph. He also learned a changeup and improved his curveball. However, his control was lackluster and he often got himself in to high pitch counts. The Diamondbacks dialed down his velocity quite a bit, but the result was a huge boost in control. They also tweaked his delivery for more top-down action. Some people say that he throws a 2-seamer, while some say that he simply slowed down his 4-seam fastball. I can't offer an opinion.

Control: Aluminum bats took their toll on Ohlendorf in college, and he consistently walked more than 3.80 batters per 9 innings. The Diamondbacks made it their prerogative in 2005 to get him to challenge batters and pound the strikezone. He cut his historically bad walk rate nearly in half, and pitched a considerable amount of innings for the first time in his career as a result. In 2006, he got even better, pitching 182 innings and walking just 29 in 28 starts against 129 strikeouts. The declining K rate is a concern, as he struck out 8.25 per 9 in 2005 but just 6.33 per 9 in 2006.

Health: Princeton was the right place for Ohlendorf's developing arm. He didn't have to pitch as much before or during the season as many of his college peers. Ohlendorf is a completely healthy pitcher at age 24, not missing a start since he was drafted in 2004. He has pitched 339 innings over the past two years.

Performance: Ohlendorf was one of the minor's best workhorses in 2006, pitching 182 innings in 28 starts. He posted a 3.29 ERA in a major hitters park. He posted a 1.55 G/F ratio, down from 2.13 in 2005. He solved his hittability problems from 2005, when he allowed 181 in 157 innings, to allow 186 hits in 182.2 innings. As previously mentioned, his strikeout rates declined significantly, which is a major cause for concern. He succeeded because he allowed a very low home run rate (13 in 2006, .64 per 9) and for the most part prevented runners from reaching base (1.47 BB per 9). However, he's going to have to regain some of those strikeouts if he is going to be an effective major league pitcher.

Comparison: I see Ohlendorf as a David Bush type if he make the majors. He can't afford to lose any more of his strikeout rate, or else he'll never get enough major league hitters out to be an effective pitcher. If everything goes well, he has the ability through his control to pitch 220+ innings pretty regularly of 4.30-4.60 ERA baseball.

My Take: I'm mixed on Ohlendorf. The prospect graveyards are filled with players who had great control in AA, but poor strikeout rates. Still, Ohlendorf has a lot of things going for him. He is a healthy speciman with great control. He doesn't have a lot of miles on his arm, but has handled big workloads. I think that he can remain a starter, but needs to move quickly. He doesn't turn 25 until August, but is way down in the Yankee depth charts. If he doesn't succeed at AAA fairly quickly, he is in danger of being passed by a half dozen promising young Yankees. Nardi Contreras and the Yankees have become famous lately for improving the changeup/curveball combination of pitchers, so maybe they can find his strikeout touch again. If I had to rank him in the top-30, I'd probably place him in the middle teens somewhere. At the very least, Ohlendorf is a smart guy with an engineering degree from Princeton, so he has a happy future somewhere out there.

20 Predictions, Major Leagues

2007-02-08T08:13:00.000-08:00

I'm still undecided on a few of my "pessimistic" minor league predictions, so I'm going to move up my major league predictions. I think that a few will surprise you. I have to say that some of these divisions are tough calls. The majors certainly look to be competitive in 2007.

National League West

1. Final Standings - San Diego, Arizona (Wildcard), Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado

* - This is a really hard division to predict. Every team but Colorado has improved over the winter. I'm giving it to San Diego because their pitching staff should eat a lot of innings. Maddux and Wells will have ERAs around 4.00, which makes them valued players if they pitch 200 innings or more. This might just be the hideously weak National League's best division.

2. Jake Peavy will rebound to post an ERA under 3.00 and over 200 strikeouts.
3. Barry Bonds will break Hank Aaron's record with 26 HR for the season. He will play again in 2008.

National League Central

4. Final Standings - Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Pirates

* - Another competitive division. I am counting on Ben Sheets cashing in on his great peripherals and posting a healthy, ace-like season. The Brewers have the most well rounded team in the division, with competent pitching (Capuano is underrated, plus Suppan), and good depth (good bench, some minor leaguers like Gallardo ready to step in). The Cubs, thanks to their suddenly elite hitting and the possibility of Mark Prior's return, and the Reds - with a 1-2-3 of Arroyo, Harang, and Bailey - could also make a run at it. The reigning World Series champions are going to be desperate for some pitching - and their thin farm system isn't going to help them there. Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter can't win a division by themselves.

5. Lou Pinella will be ejected seven times.

National League East

6. Final Standings - Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Nats

* - The Mets are going to feel their lack of pitching hard this season. They still have a fantastic lineup - but they aren't going to get so lucky with the Jose Valentins and Endy Chavezes of the world in 2007. Pedro won't be around to save them, and Tom Glavine wasn't as good last year as Mets fans think. It's going to be a long summer when they realize that John Maine is their best pitcher. Things could change if the Mets decide to trade Lastings Milledge for a good starter sometime in the season, but I doubt it. The Phillies made a good win-now move by trading for Garcia, and Cole Hamels is going to be a good starter. They might be best off if Jon Lieber stays on and eats some innings, but we'll see if that really happens. The Marlins remain a darkhorse, but you could probably expect some regression from their hitters. All three teams should be in play for the Wild Card.

7. The Nationals will be baseball's worst team, losing 105 games.

National League Awards

8. Cy Young - Jake Peavy.
9. MVP - Ryan Howard
10. ROY - Homer Bailey

American League West

11. Final Standings - Angels, Rangers, A's, Mariners

* - Shock of all shocks! Another competitive division. It is clearly the worst of it's kind in the AL. The Angels edge out the Rangers thanks to their version of the Johnny Damon signing, leaving the Rangers without a real centerfielder. Jered Weaver should be one of the better sophmores in the majors, and Howie Kendrick should be pretty good. The A's are a darkhorse if Rich Harden is finally healthy, as that would give them four good or better starters and a reliable bullpen. Still, they fall in the standings thanks to Frank Thomas.

12. Sammy Sosa will make the Rangers as their starting right fielder, but post an OBP under .300. He'll hit a few home runs, but if the Rangers are smart, they'll jettison him by the all star break.

American League Central

13. Final Standings - Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City

* - I'm a big Mark Shapiro fan, and he clearly had the major's best offseason. Nixon, Delluci, Blake, and Shoo will combine for high-OBP and modest power at the outfield corners. With Grady Sizemore, you have the best outfield outside of the AL-East. Their pitching will be better than expected, and their bullpen will pick up any slack. Gary Sheffield will help Detroit, and but I think his 35+ home run days are over. Conversely, he'll enjoy the line-drive friendly confines of his new home ballpark. Either Minnesota or Detroit could win the AL Wildcard, as both will be very good teams. I'm counting on slight regressions from The Twins' catcher position (No way that they get that kind of help from their backup catcher this year) and in the bullpen (Yeah, Reyes is not for real). Chicago is going to regret getting rid of Garcia and McCarthy in the short term, but will love the trades in 2008.

14. Alex Gordon will hit the majors with a storm. He'll hit 30 home runs if he plays a full season. Royals fans will have a reason to come to the ballpark.

American League East

15. Final Standings - New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay

* - This division isn't much worse than the AL Central. Every team has improved over last season. Tampa Bay should see it's farm system finally reap real rewards, and Baltimore may actually have a pitching staff (although their hitters leave a lot to be desired). Teams may have lower win totals due to beating each other up. In the end, New York wins out due to it's superior hitting lineup (Although Toronto and Boston have excellent ones), combined with some of the most consistent pitching in the division. New York will suffer injuries, but will replace players better than any of the other teams.

16. Daisuke will pitch to a 3.85 ERA.

17. Daniel Cabrera will finally break out and be Baltimore's best starter.

American League Awards

18. Cy Young - Johan Santana (tough one)
19. MVP - Grady Sizemore (though Alex Rodriguez will be in contention)
20. ROY - Alex Gordon

I'll have a Ross Ohlendorf profile up sometime this weekend. I've been working hard trying to verify the incredibly inconsistent reports on everything he throws.

Mel Stottlemyre and Ron Guidry

2007-02-07T09:05:00.000-08:00

Brent asks:

How do you assess Mel Stottlemyre's time as pitching coach as the Yankees?

It has been said that he works well with soft-throwing and breaking-ball pitchers than power powers. In assessment to the type of pitchers the Yankees are seemingly focusing on through the draft and trades (sinkerballs and developing pitchers with great breaking stuff), would he have been the better fit (now and in the future) than Guidry in the same spot?

Evaluating a pitching or hitting coach has to be the hardest job in baseball. We don't see all the decisions that they make - unlike a manager. All we see is the result on the mound. The problem is, the pitching coach can only do so much with what he has. We can't blame Mel for Donovan Osbourne, can we? At the same time, we can't give Leo Mazzone credit for John Smoltz?

It all really comes down to my opinion. My personal opinion? I think he did a bad job with the Yankees. It's often said that "The best players make the worst coaches". Mel was a very good player. If he hadn't retired at age 32, he would probably be in the Hall of Fame. However, he was an unconventional player. He was the 1960s version of Chien-Ming Wang. Stottlemyre was a bonafide innings eater who forced players to pound balls in to the ground, but not strike out.

Who succeeded under Stottlemyer? Pettitte did. Cone did. Wells did. Mussina has. Duque did. Lieber sort of did. Who got worse under Stottlemyer? Clemens, Johnson and Vazquez. I think we can dismiss Brown, Contreras, and Weaver for other reasons.

It seems pretty clear to me: Pitchers whose primary weapon is the ground ball did well under Stottlemyer. Of course, Cone, Wells, Pettitte, and Mussina are all near hall of fame level, so they Mel may have had little to do with it.

I think that Johnson's problems can be attributed a little bit to age. Still, he went from the best pitcher in the National League to a decent little pitcher in the American League under Mel. But hell, he was pretty good in 2005.

Let's look at Clemens and Vazquez. Clemens came to the Yankees in 1999, coming off two of the best seasons of his career. Entering the Yankees, his strikeout rates declined and his performance went with it. He may have won the Cy Young award, but he didn't deserve it. Nor was he his old self until he left the Yankees, and was a top-3 pitcher in baseball again.

Javy Vazquez looked like a great pickup for Cashman before 2004. I was singing his praises. Vazquez was the jewel of the National League in the prime of his career. He was coming off a 241 K season, with great control. He was never much of a ground ball pitcher. He lost a third of his strikeouts with the Yankees, leading to his poor season. Of course, since moving away from Stottlemyer, Vazquez hasn't gotten much better.

The verdict? I think that there is some truth to Stottlemyer's problem with power pitchers, but I don't think that he is to blame for the Yankee pitching demise after 2003. Let's be honest, the Yankee pitching staff from 1997 until 2003 was as good as it gets, and few teams could win 102 games the season after losing Andy Petttite, Roger Clemens, and David Wells. I think a lot of factors - injury, bad luck, defensive decline, coaching, and less talent - resulted in our post-2003 pitching decline.

I like what Guidry has done so far. Mussina was throwing his changeup more. Wang blossomed (in a Stottlemyre style). I can't fault him for Randy Johnson's bad back. Beyond that, he didn't have a whole lot to work with. 2007 will help to define what kind of coach he is. He neither has a large group of hall of fame talent nor does he have a bunch of scrubs. Igawa is going to be a challenge, and so will the potential group coming up from Scranton.

I'm working on the Ohlendorf profile now. It will either be up on Thursday or late this weekend.

Prospect Profile: Alberto Gonzalez

2007-02-04T12:12:00.000-08:00

Age: 23 (24 in April)
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 165 lbs
Drafted: Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Diamondbacks in 2002
Position: Shortstop
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

Tools: Any discussion of Alberto Gonzalez begins with defense. Alberto Gonzalez has one of the best infield arms in the minor leagues: a certified cannon. I heard one person compare his arm to Cal Ripken's. He doesn't have phenominal range, but he is above average to both sides. Combined, Alberto Gonzalez is one of the top defensive shortstops in baseball. On the other side of the ball, Gonzalez isn't as bad as other defensive wizards of the minors. He has been very good at limiting the strikeout, striking out just once every two and a half games in three minor league seasons. To put that in perspetive, that rate is somewhere in between Melky Cabrera and Robby Cano. He doesn't hit for much power but he's no Joey Gathwright either. He hit 6 home runs in 2006, and has consistently put up .100 ISOs in the minors. Gonzalez isn't particularly fast on the basepaths.

Performance: Alberto hit .290/.356/.392 at AA last year, and .318/.359/.426 in Low A ball in 2005. These numbers interest me. First off, Gonzalez was able to maintain high averages for both years. He puts the ball in play enough with his line drive swing that he may just hit .290 in the bigs. He also seems ready to take 40-50 walks a year, which will make him a useful little player. If he hits .290/.350/.390 in the majors and plays the kind of defensive game that is capable of, Gonzalez would be a viable major league regular. On a team like the Yankees, he'll be a great defensive replacement and utility infielder.

Health: Gonzalez is a perfectly healthy 24 year old.

2007 Outlook: Alberto may just bump Andy Cannizaro from his hard earned AAA starting spot. I feel sorry for Andy, but Gonzalez is better than Cannizaro in all aspects of the game. Cannizaro might be pushed to another position (although he's not much worse than Gonzalez at shortstop) to prepare for a role as a utilityman. Gonzalez is on the 40-man roster and is first in line for a call up if Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, or Miguel Cairo get injured. Gonzalez has been push aggressively through the minors, so he could require some AAA adjustment time,

Comparison: The conventional comparison is David Eckstein, and I agree. Gonzalez looks to hit better than guys like Adam Everett or Alex Gonzalez, by virtue of a higher batting average. Eckstein makes contact, takes the right amount of walks, and will hit the occassional extra base hit.

My take: At first, I wasn't sold on Gonzalez. He looked like the typical Neifi Perez or Alex Gonzalez defensive wizard who hits like a pitcher. Then I took a closer at his batting line and saw that he had a little stick in him. I was impressed about how he skipped A+ ball entirely, and then put up a very similar batting line at AA. This tells me that he knows how to make adjustments and figure out his competition. In addition, I found it interesting how Gonzalez batted better when the pressure was off him to produce. In 2006, he hit .236/.314/.324 batting 2nd, but .333/.390/.425 batting 8th. A lot of that OBP is fueled by the pitcher behind him, but still Gonzalez hit a similar line to his 2005 A- totals. I think that Gonzalez is the reason that the Yankees got Ross Ohlendorf instead of Micah Owings, and Brian Cashman may just have made the right decision. If I reranked the prospects, Gonzalez would probably be in the middle teens.

Some Reader Questions

2007-02-03T08:26:00.000-08:00

I'm pretty stretched for time right now, so I'll answer some questions that have been popping up in comments.

b/c asks EJ, are you going to get profiles on the pitchers from the trades. i really want to see Jackson's and Ohlendorf's?

My prior objection to doing so was ignorance about the who the prospects really were. I don't like to rehash other people's analysis because I couldn't come up with anything original alone. I'm starting to become more familiar with the guys, so I'll probably put out profiles for Ross Ohlendorf and Alberto Gonzalez before battery mates report.

Jepedo - DO you know why Joshua Schmidt is still in High A Ball - Tampa? Where do you think He will end this year?

It's a pretty standard path for a reliever to spend a full year in A+ ball after being drafted and sent to short season play. I am glad to see in the Baseball Analysts article that someone mentioned that Schmidt has both above average K rates and top-line ground ball rates.

In case anyone did not know, Jason Schmidt absolutely decimated the short season A ball league in 2005 after being drafted. 33 innings, .27 ERA, 45 Ks, 8 walks, 2.29 GO/AO. He did pretty well in Tampa before the all star break (2.59 ERA, 32 K, 14 BB, Zero HR allowed), but fell apart after the break (5.65 ERA, 36 innings, 34 K, 17 BB, 4 HR allowed). Overall, in the Florida State League, it's a bad year (4.24 ERA). I think that Schmidt still has a lot of potential, but I'm not sold on him until he solves his control problems. He is a sidearmer who throws 89-91 with (as the reader mentioned) a sick little slider.

I think that Schmidt was kept down in Tampa because Tampa needed some bullpen help. They were in a serious playoff hunt and needed the arms. Plus, Trenton had a pretty strong staff. He'll go to a strong Trenton team next season. I would expect him to spend the whole year at Trenton, unless he really dominates. The Scranton bullpen is crowded enough.

Jedepo also asks - Do you think Wang's can learn how to throw new pitch like a 12-6 curveball or knucklecurve from Mussina to the lefties and cutter to the righties?

I doubt that he could learn a curveball. It's really difficult for a pitcher already in the majors to learn a new pitch. Wang already has a slider - which used to be pretty good. He throws it every once in awhile. Reportedly, Wang was working on a cutter toward the end of last season, which you may see a little more in 2007. You do have a point though that Wang needs an out pitch against lefties.

How Good is Phil Hughes?

2007-01-29T12:26:00.000-08:00

All right. I've asked the same question of two sophmores, but can my methods handle a rookie?

Phil Hughes it the top pitching prospect in baseball. No, Dice-Kai is not a pitching prospect, nor should he be ranked ahead of Hughes even if he was one, but that is another story.

Hughes is one of the more enigmatic prospects in recent memory. Twenty-two teams passed on him before the Yankees had a pick in the 2004 draft. The Yankees, knowing what other teams did not, barely let him throw a pitch that year. They taught him a curveball, let him throw one minor league game, and stashed his golden arm away for the winter. Hughes hit A ball with a storm in 2005, dominating hitters for a 1.97 ERA, 9.44 K/9, and 2.10 BB/9. He earned a promotion to Tampa, where he would pitch 17 more innings of 3.06 ERA before being shut down with mild shoulder concerns. That was one year ago. Since then, you all know what happened.

Hughes has a career minor league ERA of 2.13, K/9 of 10.21, BB/9 of 2.05, and a miniature .23 HR/9. He has the minor's best power/command combination, an exceptional curveball, and a developing changeup. On top of it all, he hold it all together with plus "moxy", or whatever you wish to call it.

He has the kind of package that we see in great pitchers. Mark Prior. Jake Peavy. Chris Carptener. Curt Schilling. Roy Halladay. He is on the level of these right handed pitchers. He has the potential to be even better. Hughes is the kind of prospect that cannot be overestimated.

What do the projection systems say? They are pretty conservative:

CHONE: 4.05 ERA, 90 ip, 75 K, 35 BB, 11 HR
ZiPs: 4.06 ERA, 164 ip, 127 K, 58 BB, 15 HR
PECOTA: 3.91 ERA, 130 ip, 108 K, 45 BB, 14 HR
Average: 4.00 ERA, 128 ip, 103 K (7 per 9), 46 BB (3.23 per 9), 13 HR (.91 per 9)

(Marcel does not project minor league players. These systems don't try to predict playing time accurately, so adjust mentally for whatever playing time you predict for Hughes in 2007)

I included the PECOTA projection because it seems to be floating around every site. PECOTA is a projection system from Baseball Prospectus, which any true stat-head needs to have a subscription to. I think that these projections are lowballing Hughes. I think that Hughes' K rate will dip in his major league season to about 7.5 per 9, but his BB rate will stay in the mid-2s.

Hughes is a unique prospect because few others have combined the power, ground ball rates, and control that he owns. Baseball Analysts just did an excellent study on pitchers who have the best combined groundball and K rates in the minors. Hughes was #2. Unlike any of the other top names on the generated list, Phil has plus-plus control. That is why he is truely special.

I think that Hughes will post a lower ERA in 2007 than those projection systems expect. I think that he'll allow more home runs than he ever did in the minors, but his groundball rates will still remain above average. The Yankee defense should be pretty good in 2007 (more on that tomorrow), so Hughes should gain a boost there.

My prediction: 3.67 ERA, 116 innings, 95 K, 35 BB, 11 HR.

Team Defense, part 1

2007-01-26T09:34:00.000-08:00

Measuring defense is a very difficult thing to do. Statitically minded people have been able to deduce hitting to it's very basic parts and put a specific run and win quanitity to every swing of the bat. Defense, and the pitchers who benefit from it, is much harder to measure.

Every defensive discussion in baseball must begin with some baseball theory. The end goal in baseball is to win. Winning is 50% run scoring and 50% run prevention (this is actually disputed, but for now let's assume that it's basically true). A team's ability to prevent runs is divided between the pitcher and the fielder. The vast majority of the ability to prevent runs lies in the pitchers - especially in their ability to prevent home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Pitchers control probably about 80% of run prevention - or 40% of winning games. The other 20%/10% lies in the hands of the fielders.

The second thing that needs to be said in regards to theory is that virtually every major league fielder is very good at their job. This may be the one area where baseball is not about failure. Jason Giambi would be a dominant defensive player in a high school baseball league. He has the training, experience, and physical skills to do so. Bernie Williams has a pretty strong armed when compared to most Division I outfields. The differences in major league players are very subtle. The best defensive shortstop would struggle to make two plays a week more than an average one.

There are a lot of different ways that we try to measure defense. The typical, dare I say "mundane" way of measuring defense revolve around the statistic "errors". Errors may be the worst statistic in baseball. Errors are subjective (it's up to the official scorer's decision) and don't tell us anything (If Derek Jeter boots a ball, he gets an error, but if he simply doesn't get to the ball, there is still a runner on 1st base, but the player gets a hit). Errors are good for determining if a batter gets credit for a play or not, but does a terrible job for fielders.

The best statistic, in my mind, for determing team defense is Defense Efficiency Ratio or "DER". DER is really simply. It takes the total number of outs made by a team's defense (not counting home runs or strikeouts) and divdes it by the total number of balls in play. The Yankees were pretty good last season by DER. DER listed them as 8th in the majors with a .7108 ratio. Only the Tigers in the AL were better.

Great, the Yankees were pretty good last season. The problem is that most individual (looking at the single fielders) statistical systems thought that we were actually pretty bad. There are a lot of ways that people use to attempt to measure individual defense. David Gassko tried to predict the number of plays that a player should make based upon how many balls fell in to that side of the infield. Zone Rating divides each section of the field in to a player's responsibility, and John Dewan of The Fielding Bible uses a +/- system based on individual play locations.

All three are great attempts at determing range, but all three have their problems. They don't account for defensive positioning or shifts. They don't account for ballpark nuances either. All three also peg virtually every Yankee defender at below average or worse. This doesn't line up with what we see with DER. Tomorrow, I am going to have a look at the actual numbers and see if the Yankees indeed have an above average to good defense, or a below average or worse one.

The Tribe in the Shadows

2007-01-24T20:29:00.000-08:00

There has been a lot of movement this offseason. We've seen Detroit, San Diego, San Francisco, Boston and Chicago make big changes. Most of those teams have spent big money to lure in free agents, overpaying in the long term for short term gains.

And of course, the small market team gets overlooked. Who is the hidden darkhorse of 2007? Mark Shapiro's Cleveland Indians.

I think that Shapiro is a vastly underrated General Manager. He has completely rebuilt the aging franchise of Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez, Albert Belle, and Jim Thome. It looked like the Indians were ready for greatness in 2005, as the Indians formed one of the best pitching/defense combinations in the AL, coming within a few games of a playoff appearance. Their young hitters were not ready for prime time. 2006 saw a decline in pitching as those hitters blossomed in to legit stars.

Amid all the big spending, Shapiro got smart. He signed Trot Nixon to a one year, three million dollar deal. He picked up Keith Foulke for 5 million dollars. Joe Borowski to 4.25 million. He may have signed the best deal for a position player of the offseason, signing David Delluci to a 3 year, 11.5 million dollar deal. Shapiro signed Roberto Herndandez for 3.5 million with incentives. He even got Aaron Fultz for just 1.5 million.

He got rid of Aaron Boone. He traded promising hitter Kevin Kouzmanoff, whose position he already has covered with Andy Marte, for the much needed 2nd baseman Josh Barfield.

The Indians simply have a great collection of position players right now. Grady Sizemore may be the most underrated player in all of baseball, and is under Shapiro's control for many years. Travis Hafner may be the AL's best hitter. Victor Martinez may be the best offensive catcher. He has Shin-Shoo Choo, David Delluci, Jason Michaels, and Trot Nixon to get creative and platoon in the outfield. Andy Marte is going to be a great major league hitter once he inherits the full time job.

Pitching wise, the Indians should improve over last season. Westbrook, Sowers, and Sabathia give him three above average or better healthy starters, and Cliff Lee may just give him a fourth. As far as 5th starters go, he's doing pretty well with Paul Byrd. If things go wrong, he can always call up top prospect Adam Miller.

His bullpen? Foulke, Borowski, and Hernandez will fight it out for the closer job. He has Rafael Betancourt, Jason Davis, Aaron Fultz, and Fernando Cabrera to round out the bullpen. That's a pretty strong group. It's not top heavy, but the back end is solid.

I'm not sure how I will predict it in the coming days (when I do my major league predictions), but I'm thinking about sticking my neck out and projecting the 1st place Cleveland Indians.

A Word On Prospects

2007-01-22T08:59:00.000-08:00

I'm very optimistic on this site. However, I have failed to mention one caveat that must be assumed during any discussion of prospects.

Prospects fail. A lot. The vast majority of those who are considered top-30 prospects will never see a major league pitch. Just like other facets of baseball, good player development depends on how a team can cut back that failure and find the success stories in the rubble.

Prospects can fail for a lot of reasons. Pitchers tend to get injured... a lot. For every major league pitcher, two promising young prospects went down with a career derailing injury. Sometimes prospects get lucky and recover from those injuries - Mariano Rivera for example. Sometimes prospects fade into obscurity. The Yankees are trying so hard to prevent this with Phil Hughes. But even if everything is done that can be done to try and prevent an injury, sometimes it will still happen. Liriano is a perfect example.

Of my top-10 prospects, we will be very lucky if five work out. Hell, if five of them work out, we'll have another World Championship core going. Of our other top 30 prospects, we'll be lucky if another five work out. The ticking clock of age and injury will catch up to some, while others just won't have the hard work and talent in their bodies to succeed at this very high level.

I used to include "Chance of Reaching Majors" at the end of every profile to illustrate this point, but I deleted it because the numbers were pretty arbitrary.

Brian Cashman has decided to overcome this problem through sheer volume. The Yankees have had trouble - Chien-Ming Wang aside - developing pitchers for the longest time. Cashman's solution? Draft, trade, and sign every little pitcher he can. He has eight starting pitchers who could potentially contribute at the major league level in 2007. That is an enormous amount. How many will have successful careers as major league starters? Maybe three. Four if we are lucky. The others will become the next generation of Kris Wilsons and Aaron Smalls, or leave baseball entirely before the decade is over.

When I make a prediction, I have to look for predictive signs that can determine whether or not a prospect will emerge from the crowd. And I am wrong, very often. I don't care what amateur or professional prospect analyst that you reference, we are wrong very often. Like all other facets of baseball, we must seek to act with the least possible amount of failure.

I have a lot of plans for the upcoming season. I will be writing a lot about the MLB Yankee team, but also I want to run a daily recap on the minor league farm system. I will not be writing too much in preparation for the draft - because I do not have the time and know-how to navigate the vast amount of information beyond the first round draft picks. I will however be writing detailed analysis following the draft. I will be away for the summer again - which could shut the blog down for two months, although that is not as certain as it was last year. After the season, I will rerank and reprofile the Yankee prospects.

I am looking forward to all of this (Pitchers and Catchers in less than 3 weeks!), and I hope you are too. If you have any suggestions about what I should cover during the minor league season, please tell me.

How Good is Chris Britton?

2007-01-20T10:12:00.000-08:00

The Yankees traded for a lot of young pitchers this offseason. Ross Ohlendorf. Humberto Sanchez. Kevin Whelan. Steve Jackson. We even got Luis Vizcaino. These guys are all excellent little acquisitions, but I am most excited about the most overlooked pitcher that we brought in - Chris Britton.

Britton was somewhat of a surprise for the Orioles in 2006. In 2005, Britton blossomed in to a top notch relief prospect for his level, pitching 78.2 innings at High A ball. He struck out an obscene 110 and walked just 23. He allowed just 14 runs for an ERA of 1.60.

Despite the numbers, Britton stayed under the radar. The Orioles were more focused on their ace reliever Chris Ray. Baseball America did not list Britton among the Orioles top-10 prospects, but did get a nod for "Best Control".

Britton started out brilliantly at the Orioles's AA affiliate. He did not allow a run in 21 1/3 innings. It took a few recalls from AA for Britton to catch on, but he earned himself a trusted place in the Baltimore bullpen by June. Through August, he pitched 41.2 innings with an ERA of 2.59, striking out 32 and walking ten. He hit a rough patch that earned him a short demotion to AA (I can't find any proof of this, but I'd wager that the Orioles needed an extra outfielder or something, and Britton had options). The rough patch wouldn't look much different from a typical Kyle Farnsworth week - over four appearances he allowed seven runs. Britton was sent down and called up ten days later. He finished the season strong - pitching 7.1 innings in ten appearances while striking out eight and walking 1.42. He allowed just one run over that time.

All told, Britton pitched 16 innings in AA and 53.2 innings in the majors. He posted K/BB ratios of 24/6 and 41/17 at those levels.

Britton was drafted in the 8th round of the 2001 draft out of High School, but suffered a major setback when he was hit in the face with a line drive. He had to have surgery on his face, which set him back a year. Britton was set back further in 2003 when he had to have surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He missed the entire season. Since that surgery, he's been excellent at every stop in the minors.

Britton has nasty stuff. He throws 92-94, but it looks faster because of his deceptive delivery. His massive stomach hides the ball. Ok, maybe not, but Britton is a big guy. He is 6'3" and reportedly weights 280 lbs. Baseball America reports that the fastball looks more like a 96 mph heater to hitters. Britton complements his fastball with a plus-and-a-half curveball, which is where he gets his strikeouts. Britton also has a changeup, but it's more of a "show-me" pitch. Britton has excellent command and control of both his fastball and his curveball.

What do the projection systems say?

CHONE: 74 IP, 4.09 ERA, 61 K, 30 BB
Marcel: 52 IP, 3.89 ERA, 39 K, 17 BB
ZiPs: 72 IP, 3.63 ERA, 65 K, 25 BB
Average: 66 IP, 3.87 ERA, 55 K, 24 BB

What do I think? I see those projections and I think of Scott Proctor. However, Britton has one weakness. Lefties hit .301/.378/.384 off Britton in just 17 innings. Lefties put up a similar split in the minors against him. Right handed hitters hit just .186/.232/.333.

Proctor put up similar splits in 2005, except that Proctor let lefites hit for power too. I think that if Joe Torre used him right, Britton would beat the ZiPs projection by a small margin. I don't think that Joe Torre will use him right. I think that Britton will fall closer to the 3.87 ERA line. If he does, he'll be a valued member of our bullpen. Hopefully Torre doesn't overuse or alienate him.

Of course, Britton has two option years left. We have a loaded bullpen. The Yankees could make the wrong decision and keep Brian Bruney instead of keeping Britton in the majors. We'll see.

How Good Will Melky Be?

2007-01-18T11:48:00.000-08:00

Melky Cabrera is most likely going to be our 4th outfielder next season. Melky entered 2006 in a suspect position. Entering 2006, Melky was just a 21 year old borderline centerfielder who had been promoted quickly throughout the system. Melky had a knack to avoid the strikeout, a cannon for an arm, and above average range for a corner outfielder, but there wasn't much reason to believe that he was anything special. I wasn't a big Melky fan a year ago.

Things can certainly change in a year. Melky spent a month in Columbus, hitting .385/.430/.556 in 31 games. I was ranting and raving about how Melky needed to be called up, but the Yankees only did so when an injury to Gary Sheffield forced their hand. Melky went on to hit .280/.360/.391 in the majors.

So, how good will Melky be? Melky Cabrera's rise is impressive for a few reasons. First off, he was very young. You can count the number of regular 21 year-old hitters in the majors on one hand. However, Melky's success is more important because he showed oustanding strike zone discipline at his young age. Melky struck out 59 times and walked 55 times.

How about his defense? That is a much harder question to answer. SG at RLYW did an excellent week-by-week analysis of Melky's defense performance. He came up with a slightly below average -3 runs over the 130 games. Win Shares at THT would rate Melky at about 3.51 WS over a full season, or 3rd among corner outfielders in the majors. Bill James also thinks that Melky is a top-5 corner outfielder in baseball. Of course, other pundits and fans have observed Melky and rated him as a "Great" defensive left fielder.

My opinion? I think that Melky is better than SG's Zone Rating analysis would pin him at. I don't think that he is an elite left fielder either. His arm is superb, but Melky had a lot of trouble with balls over his head. I'd call Melky above average, at maybe +5 runs over the full season. He should improve in 2007.

If Melky just repeated his 2006 performance, he would be a nice little bench player. He could switch hit, play defense, and pinch run without embarassing us. Taking a quick little look at all the contending teams in 2006, only Boston (Wily Mo Pena / Coco Crisp), Detroit (Thames / Monroe), Oakland (Bobby Kietly) and Los Angeles (Andre Ethier) got that kind of production out of their 4th outfielder. He would provide us a small competitive advantage.

But the nice thing about young players is that they are more likely to improve than decline. Melky's success as a 21 year old is very rare in the baseball world. The following predictions have been made by the various projection systems for Melky Cabrera in 2007:

Chone: .274/.371/.425
ZiPs: .295/.355/.445
Marcel: .289/.362/.421
Average: .286/.362/.430

In addition, PECOTA has predicted a similar line, but I can't publish information available only to premium Baseball Prospectus subscribers.

These predictions seem very fair for Melky. I've heard that 21 year olds increase their offensive output by 15% the next season. After seeing these projections, and taking a look at PECOTA's comprable players Reggie Smith and Carlos Beltran at the same age, I'm starting to warm up to the idea that Melky might just become a good enough hitter to play in a corner outfield spot. He doesn't have the range to hold down centerfield, so this is going to be vital if Melky will ever be more than a 4th outfielder.

Bobby Abreu's contract is up after next season, even though we have an option for 2008. Melky's 2007 performance will determine whether or not we can comfortably decline that option. For now, if he improves he'll be a major competitive advantage on our bench.

My prediction? I'll bet on that average line right there.

A Full Season at AAA?

2007-01-16T14:46:00.000-08:00

Some blurbs from this excellent Sports Illustrated article:

Here is Cashman's problem: his two best options for those rotation spots should be off limits until June: 20-year-old phenom Philip Hughes (he'll be 21 in June) and 44-year-old legend Roger Clemens. Can Cashman continue to remain patient through the first third of the season while Hughes tears up Triple-A and Clemens waits until he's ready to pitch? While Cashman might have no control over when Clemens pitches -- it won't be in April -- he does have the power to bring Hughes up to the big leagues prematurely, which would be a huge mistake and a departure from the plan of calculated patience that Cashman has developed.

"I wouldn't mind if Philip Hughes spent the full season in Triple-A," Cashman said before leaving on a vacation this week -- yet another sign of his acquisition of power. A Yankees GM leaving on a vacation four weeks before spring training used to be unheard of. "We're going to sit down soon with [pitching coordinator] Nardi Contreras and map out some plans that will be in place when we get to spring training Feb. 13. If Philip Hughes spends a full season in Triple-A, that's not a bad thing."

And:

"The plan that Cashman and Contreras map out for Hughes in the coming weeks should look something like this: Tell Hughes and the major league staff he has no chance of making the big league club coming out of spring training, no matter how well he pitches -- this reduces the chances of Hughes overthrowing to try to make the club -- and send him to Triple-A with the same pitch limits he had in place last season. The Red Sox used a similar plan with Jon Lester last season.

Hughes can help the Yankees in the second half, but only if he doesn't load up on innings in the minor leagues. The Yankees should budget Hughes for about 180 innings this year, postseason included. Better to cut back on those innings early in the cold of Scranton rather than late in New York."

I wouldn't read too much in to Cashman saying "I wouldn't mind if Philip Hughes spent the full season in Triple-A". I think that Cashman is holding all of his options open. The Yankees have five big league starting pitchers right now, and at least three major league ready starters on the outside part of the 40-man. It sounds to me like the Yankees are going to set up a couple of required benchmarks before Hughes is called up to the majors. Hughes is not going to pitch more than 180 innings in 2007, and that's probably a good thing.

However, a few things worry me here. Sports Illustrated speculates that Hughes will be put on the same 5 inning leash that he was put on for the second part of last season. I have mixed feelings about this. First off, I think that Hughes needs to build up to the 100 pitch level. That is the standard for major league players and Hughes has precious little experience throwing that much. I don't want his arm to become conditioned to these 70 pitch outings. However, I think that the only reason that the Yankees would start Hughes on a leash is with the intention of a mid-season call up.

I think that if Hughes spends the entire season at AAA, it will be due to tremendous luck by the New York Yankees. We have a rotation that could potentially be very good or fairly bad. If everything goes right, we may just have a full starting rotation of pretty good pitchers, and we won't need to call anybody up. I think that this is unlikely. Chances are we will finish the season with one or more of our minor league players in the rotation, and Hughes is our best option to help the major league team.

Pitching wise, Hughes is going to tear through International League batters. I don't think that there is any question there. The Eastern League is full of very advanced batters, and some teams have more talent than International League teams. Once he nails down his changeup, Hughes will have little more to learn from the minor leagues. Maybe he'll learn a cutter or something.

I'll close by saying that I cannot remember a pitching prospect as highly touted as Hughes ever being held at AAA for a full season.

20 More Predictions

2007-01-15T14:47:00.000-08:00

It's a slow news day. Besides being worried about James Brent Cox, there isn't a whole lot going on. So, it's time for... another 20 predictions! It's time for specific predictions.

Phil Hughes

1. Before Phil Hughes gets called up, the Yankees will try Jeff Karstens and (if he's still starting) Humberto Sanchez.
2. Phil Hughes will be called up in June. If a rotation spot is open for him, he'll stick and post a 3.48 ERA, striking out 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.
3. Between the two leagues, Hughes will pitch at least 170 innings in 2007. He will not make any trips to the DL.

Tyler Clippard

4. Clippard will struggle at first in AAA, and it won't just be a statistical anomaly like last season. His walk and home run rates are going to rise at first, as he adjusts to the new level. However, Clippard will eventually make that adjustment, and finish with an ERA of 3.67 and 175 strikeouts in 170 innings. He will not see major league time until September.
5. If we do make a major deadline trade, Tyler Clippard will be dealt. However, I predict that we do not make a major deadline trade.

Humberto Sanchez

6. Humberto Sanchez will spend some time in 2007 in the bullpen.
7. Humberto Sanchez will be called up to fill in for an injured starting pitcher at some time during 2007.
8. Sanchez will post an ERA of 4.90 in five starts, pitching 27 innings and striking out 20, while walking 15.

Joba Chamberlain

9. Joba Chamberlain will start the season at Tampa [even though he should start at Trenton] but earn a promotion after five starts. He will make 23 starts at Trenton, going 138 innings and posting a 3.05 ERA. He will strike out 130 and walk 46.
10. Joba Chamberlain will be a top-20 prospect in the minor leagues by year's end.

Ian Kennedy

11. Kennedy will start the season at Tampa, and surprise everybody. He'll strike out 11.3 per 9 and walk 2.95 per 9. He won't earn a promotion to Trenton until July however, due to a clogged rotation.
12. Ian Kennedy will have an ERA of 3.40 between the two levels.

Dellin Betances

13. Dellin Betances will dominate A ball hitters, pitching 100 innings of 2.30 ERA ball, striking out 110 and walking 35. The Yankees will shut him down, like they did with Hughes, after 100 innings.
14. Baseball America will surprise everyone and rate Betances ahead of Jose Tabata on their top 10 Yankee prospect list. He will be a top-10 pitching prosect in the league with Joba Chamberlain.

Jeff Marquez

15. Jeff Marquez will put up a Jeff Marquez-like season at Trenton - and will finally be healthy. He'll pitch a bunch of innings with an ERA around 3.6, strikeout about 7 per 9, and post a G/F ratio around 2.00.
16. Marquez will spend the entire season at Trenton.

Christian Garcia

17. Garcia will not throw a pitch until mini-camp, after the minor league season is over. He will play winter ball somewhere.

Mark Melancon

18. Melancon will get a few innings in at the end of the minor league season for Staten Island.

Zach McAllister

19. The Yankees will not severely limit McAllister's innings. He'll throw around 120.
20. McAllister's ERA will be around 4.10. He will struggle to strike people out (~6.5 per 9), but post solid g/f numbers (about 1.50 per 9)

Non-Roster Invitees

2007-01-14T15:55:00.000-08:00

Let's take a look of whom the Yankees invited to their Major League Spring Training in addition to the 39 players on the 40 Man Roster.

RHP Phil Hughes - You know him. You love him. You get to watch him on TV. He won't make the team, but we'll enjoy watching him and letting the media speculate that he will.

SS/3b Angel Chavez - Someone has to play 3rd for Columbus. If he sees big league time, it means that Alex Rodriguez is injured.

C Raul Chavez - Will compete for the backup catcher job. May be the worst option of the three. He'll nurse pitchers in AAA.

INF Marcos Vechionacci - His two spring training invites show how high the organization is on him. Lots of scouts are saying that he could still hit 30 home runs, and I love his Strike/Walk numbers. I remember Torre raving about his defense a year ago.

C Ben Davis - Has a very very long shot at the big league catcher job. He'll be sent down to AAA.

C Todd Pratt - A 40 year old who may be our best option at backup. I'm not sure how he still is defensively, but he has a history of hitting well. Things could still work out badly (we all thought that Kelly Stinnett was an upgrade over Flaherty), but I'd take him.

RHP Jeff Nelson - I'm glad he could retire a Yankee. He was an overshadowed piece of our dynasty teams.

RHP Kevin Whelan - This one surprised me a little bit. J.B. Cox didn't get an invite, but Whelan did? The Organization must love him and his strikeout rates. Whelan's next task is to attack the high minors and lower his walk rate.

SS Ramiro Pena - He may be the best defensive shortstop in professional baseball. The Yankees must be very high on Pena to invite him. He was rushed beyond imagination in 2006, so he'll return to Trenton. He'll have to hit better than a pitcher to even be a useful MLB backup.

LHP Ben Kozlowski - For me, he's the most interesting of the group. He was a failed left handed starter in the minors, bouncing around from Atlana to Texas to the Dodgers to Cincinatti and back to the Dodgers. He languished in AA for five years, only conquering the level when he was converted to the bullpen. His two small forays in to AAA weren't pretty. If the Yankees are really really desperate for a second left handed pitcher, he could compete with Henn for a spot. More likely, he'll play Wayne Franklin in Scranton (and hopefully not New York).

RHP Tyler Clippard - The Yankees get a chance to showcase their most valueable asset that they are willing to peddle. If Clippard does well in Scranton, he'll have a lot of suitors. I'd love to see Clippard in a Yankee uniform, but he's way down on the depth charts by virtue of staying off the 40-man roster.

SS Andy Cannizaro - He probably could do Miguel Cairo's job better than Miguel Cairo, but Andy gets another season at AAA. The Alberto Gonzalez trade was horrible news for him. Too bad, because I was hoping to see Andy in the bigs again. He may not get the chance, and that is a travesty.

RHP Ross Ohlendorf - Will be fighting to stay out of the bullpen in Scranton. One starter will have to either be converted or sent down to Trenton, and I hope that Ohlendorf is not it.

RHP Steve Jackson - Same as Ohlendorf, although I would prefer that he is the odd man out.

1b/3b Eric Duncan - He raked last spring, but Duncan's task now is to prove that he is healthy. I hope that the Yankees send Duncan to Scranton, not Trenton. Duncan showed that when he was healthy, he punished AA hitters.

C P.J. Pilittere - Is only on the roster because we will need catchers, but Pilittere will be the primary catcher at Trenton. If he hits like he did in 2006 at Tampa and Arizona, Pilittere could be a mid-season option at backup catcher.

OF Brett Gardner - He's one good season away from a call up. I think that Gardner needs to start at Trenton. There is no pressing need for him immediately anyway. We may see him in September.

OF Jose Tabata - He'll be the youngest guy at the big league camp. Tabata will look to add the one missing piece to his game in 2006 - power. A full season at Tampa will challenge him. He could always pick his game up and move fast, but I think that the organization will prefer to keep him close to their home in Florida.

RHP Steve White - In midst of all the Chaos, White had a pretty good season in 2006. Yankee fans overlook him, but he's still a legit prospect. Trade bait? Maybe. If the Yankee rotation suffers a meltdown, White could be a capable fill in. I'd be interested to see him in a bullpen role though.

C Omir Santos - Just a roster filler. Santos is a good defensive catcher who will never hit. But the pitchers need someone to throw the ball to, right?

I was very surprised not to see J.B. Cox or Justin Christian on this list. I'm also interested to see Alberto Gonzalez, T.J.Beam, Humberto Sanchez, and Juan Miranda in spring training.

Interview with Gyroballer Kyle Boddy, Part 2

2007-01-12T20:31:00.000-08:00

Here is the second part of my interview with amateur gyroballer Kyle Boddy of Baseball Delusions.

PP: Do you see the Gyroball as a pitch that a Major League player could use effectively?

Kyle: Absolutely. I look forward to seeing Daisuke Matsuzaka in the MLB, and to see whether or not he develops his gyroball.

PP: Do you expect to see professional baseball players of all levels attempt to throw the gyroball in the next few years?
Kyle: I don't expect to see any established pitchers throw the gyroball, no. For the next few years, I imagine that it will be similar to the knuckleball - a last ditch effort to turn a position player or poor pitcher into a serviceable player in the big leagues. Tim Wakefield is a good example of this.

PP: So it's not the secret weapon that will bring pitchers back to the 60s?

Kyle: Haha, no, I doubt it. I mean, the pitch is very effective and it's a great out pitch, and it's entirely possible - but just as batters adjusted to the splitter, they too will adjust to the gyroball.

PP: How do batters react when you throw the pitch?

Kyle: They typically take the pitch the first time through, since they don't recognize the spin. I've left the pitch hanging a few times, though, and it has been hammered. My go-to out pitch is the side force gyroball, which behaves like a curve ball of sorts with good late break.

PP: Could you explain the different gyroballs that you've learned?

Kyle: Sure. There are four different variations on the gyroball. You can impart positive lift force on the ball by holding it back in the grip and tilting the wrist back, side force by tilting the wrist in and out, and negative lift force by tilting the wrist down. Since you impart gyroscopic spin on each variation anyway, the slightest change in angle will cause the spin to point a different way, and thusly will cause wildly different results

PP: What kind of gyroball have you been throwing primarily?

Kyle: The side force gyroball is the one I'm most comfortable with. I can throw it down and away from RH batters and LH batters by simply tilting the wrist in or out. However, I feel most comfortable throwing it down and away from RH batters. Against an LH batter I stick with locating my fastball and changeup outside.

PP: Will Carroll mentions the same thing. He says that a right handed pitcher will never throw a gyroball to a left handed hitter. Why is this?

Kyle: Daisuke Matsuzaka never throws the gyroball to LH batters because the pitch would move down and in to a LH batter. Since the LH batter already sees the pitch better due to the pitcher being an opposite side thrower, a ball down and in to a LH batter is in the danger zone. Suffice to say that it's right in the wheelhouse of most LH power hitters.

PP: Will Carroll admits that Matsuzaka knows how to throw a gyroball, but probably does not in a game. We've just seen his really good slider on camera. Have you seen video of Matsuzaka's pitch and do you believe that it is a gyroball?

Kyle: I have seen gyroballs thrown by Matsuzaka - by going over his Nippon league games, you can definitely see that he throws them occasionally to RH batters.

PP: What kind of gyroball?

Kyle: A common pitch mistaken for his gyroball is the second pitch in a popular video showing him at the WBC - it has sick late side break to it. However, this pitch is just a forkball/split-change that is very well-thrown. Most of his gyroballs are thrown with the standard grip and regular downforce. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sboi0EWp8ao. This pitch is absolutely a gyroball.

PP: I can see the near-slider grip

Kyle: It's tough to tell with the video quality and angle, and it's possible that it's a slider, but I am of the opinion that this is a gyroball. The slider grip has the fingers on top of the ball while the gyroball grip is on the side. It's tough to tell because of the angle of the release point which pitch this is, but the result looks very similar to a regular gyroball.

PP: Do you think that in he hands of a very talented pitcher like Matsuzaka that the gyroball could be a major weapon, or just the occassional trick pitch?

Kyle: I think it's in between. The pitch is a great out pitch for me, and when hit softly, induces a lot of groundballs. It's definitely not a trick pitch, like the eephus.

PP: Any else that you would like to say on the subject?

Kyle: I'd like to say that with this article, people will undoubtably scour my videos on YouTube and criticize my mechanics, not to mention doubt the validity of the pitch. My response is that I know I'm not perfect, that I'm re-learning how to pitch all over again, and that nothing in my videos or blog should be construed as good advice to learn how to throw any pitches, much less the gyroball. However, the pitch truly does exist, and I can throw it.

I recently took video of one of my better gyroballs, and it can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kNRhCzUffM

PP: Thanks Kyle.

I'd like to thank Kyle again for sharing this information with the baseball community. He has helped to dispel a lot of myths about the gyroball in my mind.

I'll be out in the woods for the weekend, but I will take a look at the Yankee list of non-roster invitees on Sunday... before 8 PM. Jack Bauer starts killing people at 8 PM.

Interview with Gyroballer Kyle Boddy, Part 1

2007-01-11T20:11:00.001-08:00

Baseball Prospectus's Will Caroll has made it his personal mission to teach people the gyroball - a new pitch created by a group of Japanese scientists. Several Japanese pitchers have been rumored to throw the gyroball, including the newest Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. I talked with one of Caroll's students - amateur pitcher Kyle Boddy. This is the first part of the interview.

Pinstripes Potentials: Kyle, how did you learn about the Gyroball?

Kyle: Reading Baseball Prospectus and Will Carroll's articles. I have followed Japanese baseball for about 6 months now and I'm very interested in the double-spin mechanics and their theories on pitching.

PP: After learning about the pitch, how did you learn to throw it?

Kyle: Will Carroll agreed to teach me in December if I flew out to Indianapolis. He showed me the infamous gyroball book and how to throw the pitch, and gave me basic instruction on other pitching mechanics
PP: How easy was it to learn the pitch?
Kyle: Fairly easy, actually - learning the concepts is easy when done by a pitching coach, but throwing it well is very tough - not unlike most breaking balls

PP: What other breaking pitches are you familiar with?

Kyle: In high school and college I threw a fastball, circle change, splitter, and cutter. Eventually I learned to throw a slider and curveball, and recently learned how to throw multiple gyroball variants. I now throw a fastball, changeup (experimenting with grips that I like), slider, and side force gyroball.

PP: Exactly what makes a Gyroball a Gyroball?

Kyle: The pitch is thrown without spin on the x/y axes - much like a bullet from a chamber of a gun. The spin is rifle-like in nature, and spins only on the z-axis - better known as gyroscopic force. As such, it removes the lift force from the equation of the Magnus forces on the pitch, and if thrown with the basic grip, will produce a late break downards. The four-seam fastball is thrown with lots of backspin on it with all seams catching the air - giving it a "rising fastball" optical illusion. This is due to the lift force being generated by the Magnus forces. The gyroball has no lift force imparted on it - neither negative (similar to a breaking ball) or positive (a fastball).

PP: Almost like a football's spin?

Kyle: Exactly like a football spin. It is thrown in a similar fashion - imagine pulling down across the laces of a football to impart spiral spin.

PP: How is it thrown?

Kyle: The basic grip for the gyroball is held like a football with the ball between the ear and the hand and the index and middle fingers touching a seam where they are closest together on the baseball (think: two-seam fastball, at the seams – not across the seams). The thumb is positioned directly under the baseball. The gyroball is typically thrown from the same arm slot as any other pitch. After reading these sentences, you may be envisioning a slider grip, but it’s not. The hardest part of envisioning the gyroball grip without seeing it is the ability to grasp the concept of holding a baseball like a football.

When you deliver the pitch, all the motions should be the same as a normal pitch is thrown. However, when you are bringing the arm up to speed, the wrist never breaks at the release point. After throwing the pitch, your wrist will naturally pronate, just like a circle changeup. If this is all you did when throwing the gyroball, it would be an effective off-speed pitch with similar actions to a knuckleball. However, the real “magic” of the gyroball comes when you are at the release point with your wrist locked. As you are about to release the ball and your thumb comes off the ball, pull down with your index and middle fingers, imparting true gyroscopic spin on the ball. Again, remember the analogy to throwing a football – when you throw a football, you pull down with your fingers across the laces to impart spiral spin.

PP: On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is the slowest changeup that you throw and a 10 is the fastest fastball that you throw, how fast to do throw a gyroball fastball?

Kyle: Well, there are four variants of the gyroball (at least). The regular grip can be thrown the hardest, and on that scale, I'd have to say I throw it around a 6.
PP: When you throw the Gyroball with a locked wrist - imparting true Gyroscopic spin on the ball - how much will it break?

Kyle: It's tough to say - the downward break is about a foot, and the side break has been increasing as of late on my pitches. I think I'm really developing it well. Will Carroll says the pitch breaks late and sideways between 1.5 and 2 feet, but I haven't had that kind of success.

PP: Will Carroll writes that in addition to the grip and the wrist action, that to correctly throw a gyroball you have to create "Double spin" by moving your hips. Is this how you throw it?

Kyle: Yes, absolutely. The double-spin mechanics that the Japanese write about have helped increase the velocity on my pitches for sure. Generating the necessary loop-like motion on the delivery requires turning the back leg early to generate powerful spin from the hips, which then turn the shoulders and deliver the ball through the fingers. By doing this, you can gain velocity on the pitches and create a tailing fastball in addition to throwing an effective gyroball. My four-seam fastball has pretty good tailing movement for an amateur league player, I think.

PP: Does it make it mechanically difficult to throw?
Kyle: No, it's very easy on the arm. However, the motion itself is unnatural - just like any changes to your delivery. By "unnatural", I really mean "unfamiliar" to most players.

PP: So it's not going to blow out anybody's elbow?

Kyle: I highly doubt it, but high-speed camera work and other analyses have not been done on the pitch. This is a major reason why I'm not willing to take pictures of the grip and write a tutorial on how to throw it beyond what I have already done - I don't mind risking my arm since I'm an old amateur league player, but I don't want a 16 year old kid in high school reading what I have to say and throwing it incorrectly, leading to injury. Injuries at the youth level are the highest concern of mine, especially when I coach Little League.

PP: So you would not recommend a High School pitcher reading this to go out and experiment?

Kyle: I definitely would recommend against it. The most important thing for youth pitchers to learn is to locate their fastball well and to develop a strong change-up. Breaking pitches, while very awesome looking, aren't the mainstay of any pitcher in the big leagues. They all made it by throwing an effective fastball to spots they want to, and changing speeds easily. However, if they really want to learn (and most kids will experiment no matter what you tell them), they should seek out someone who can help them throw the pitch and coach them every step of the way. Unfortunately, very few people seem qualified enough to do that. Will Carroll is basically the only one in the U.S. I could teach the basics of it, but that's about it.

I'll have Part 2 up tomorrow. Kyle maintains the website Baseball Delusions.

Relief Pipeline

2007-01-10T21:03:00.000-08:00

The Yankees have one hell of a starting pitcher depth chart. I've spent plenty of time outlining what might be the organization's greatest strength a year from now.

The Yankee bullpens of the 2000s have been held down by the sheer force of Mariano Rivera. He's had help from Steve Karsay, Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon, Scott Proctor, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton and others during that time. Except for Scott Proctor, who was traded to the Yankees by Los Angeles, we haven't seen any young relievers break in from the Yankee farm system. Guys like Ramon Ramirez, Matt Smith, Brad Halsey, and others are former Yankee farm now that now come in for other teams, but for the most part we've done a terrible job at developing young relief pitchers.

It worries me. Joe Torre has never liked his young relievers. The list of rookie relievers to break in to the majors with serious roles under Joe Torre is limited to Ramiro Mendoza and Scott Proctor. If Brian Cashman gives Torre a young starter, it's hard for him to not write his name on the lineup card every 5th day. With a young reliever, Torre can let him rot in the back of the bullpen while Paul Quantrill and Ron Villone blow their arms out.

We've got a fantastic array of guys in the minor leagues. Mariano Rivera isn't going to pitch forever. We'll probably find a decent closer replacement in Mark Melancon, J.B. Cox, Kevin Whelan, or even T.J. Beam. I think that we will get a very good lefty reliever out of Chase Wright, and may find ourselves a LOOGY in R.J. Swindle. Maybe even Humberto Sanchez or Steve White or Steve Jackson or Jeff Marquez will find their way to the Yankee pen.

Chances are, we'll find the Ramiro Mendozas and Jeff Nelsons of the next Yankee dynasty in our current crop of farmhands. Just don't expect it until after Joe Torre retires.

Tomorrow I will post part one of what may be my favorite story on this blog ever. I will post an interview with Kyle Boddy of Baseball Delusions, an amateur league pitcher who has been taught the gyroball by Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll. He brilliantly describes how to throw a gyroball, and offers his insight on it's potential use in major league baseball. I think that you'll all enjoy it.

20 More Predictions

2007-01-09T08:12:00.000-08:00

I'm back. Time for some more predictions, and then I'll answer some comment questions.

Players that are off the radar, but be top-30 prospects by September

1. Wilkens De La Rosa
2. Abraham Almonte
3. Ferdin Tejada
4. Ivan Nova

Will not rebound from injury

1. Jesse Hoover
2. Erik Abreu
3. Eric Duncan

Will rebound from injury

1. Jose Tabata
2. J.B. Cox

Will be finish the season in the bullpen

1. Tim Norton
2. Darrell Rasner
3. Erik Abreu
4. Rolando Japa
5. Daniel McCutchen

Will not finish the season in the bullpen

1. George Kontos

Will rise at least 2 levels from '06

1. Cody Ehlers (A+ to AAA)
2. Justin Christian (AA to MLB)
3. R.J. Swindle (A- to AA)
4. Phil Hughes (AA to MLB)
5. P.J. Pilittere (A+ to AAA)

b/c - "EJ, stats for Cano and Melky in winter ball?"

We don't know yet. I know that Melky hit a big home run last week though. We probably won't see the statistics until the league is finished (so, like next week).

Gardo predicts that " Three years from now Wang will be a reliever".

To be honest, I thought the same thing before this season. Wang had some very serious health issues. I didn't think that his shoulder could handle 180+ inning workloads. His ability to eat innings makes him a valued starter though. I wouldn't be surprised though if he is playing for a different team in 3 years though.

Mediaj33 points out that " Is it me or Cashman are fascinated with sinkerball type pitchers? Why do you think Cashman draft sinkerball type pitchers in the draft or trade for them. For Example, Wang, Sanchez, Ohlendorf, Mccallister, Marquez and lastly Carla Pavano"

It does seem like 90% of our system is made up of 6'3" 220 lb right handers who throw a 93 mph sinking fastball. I think that this is a mark of brilliance from Brian Cashman. I'd like to direct you to an excellent article at Baseball Analysts. Of course, it means that the Yankees are going to want to focus on infield defense in the future, which might mean a position shift for Derek Jeter.

James writes about the Red Sox - "True, Redsox bullpen are garbage and stink at moment . I feel like when the Redsox plays the Yankees - bad things happen and karma change. Pitching staff for Redsox either steps up their game or goes to higher level when they are playing yankees.Redsox bullpen become great all of sudden and Yankees bullpen on the other hand stinks. For Example Like jeter, He doesn't have great numbers in regular season to wow anyone but when He plays in big games against Redsox, he step up his game. Thoughts?"

I don't think that the Red Sox have any special power to control the baseball Gods. I think that sometimes they are smarter than the Yankees, but it's going to take more than just smarts to fix the Red Sox bullpen in 2007. When Joel Pineiro has a clause in his contract based on games finished, you know that you are looking bad. Guys like Delcarmen and Hansen could evolve in to good relievers, but the Red Sox can't count on them. It's going to be a rough year in the late innings for the Red Sox.

The 2007 Yankee bullpen

2007-01-05T13:18:00.000-08:00

Brian Cashman doesn't have a lot to work out between now and opening day. Our starting rotation and lineup are pretty much set. Our bench will be decided in Spring Training. Our bullpen is a different story.

The Yankees have the following locks, barring a trade:

Mariano Rivera - 75 innings, 1.80 ERA
Kyle Farnsworth - 66 innings, 4.36 ERA
Mike Myers - 30.2 innings, 3.23 ERA
Luis Vizcaino - 65.1 innings, 3.58 ERA
Brian Bruney (20.2 innings, 0.87 ERA)

I am going to exclude Scott Proctor for a moment, whom the Yankees are preparing to start "just in case" (102 innings, 3.52 ERA)

The Yankees have on the 25 man roster right now (no options)

Sean Henn (9.1 innings, 4.84 ERA)

And on the 40 man roster, with options:

T.J. Beam (18 innings, 8.50 ERA)
Chris Britton (53.2 innings, 3.35 ERA)
Jeff Karstens (42.2 innings, 3.80 ERA)
Darrell Rasner (unsure, may be out of options) (20.1 innings, 4.43 ERA)
Jose Veras (11 innings, 4.09 ERA)
Jeff Kennard

It seems unlikely that the Yankees will consider a normal 6 man bullpen. They will carry 7 relief pitchers. I'm not going to pretend to know what Cashman will do, but I will tell you what I would do.

Trade Brian Bruney. His 20 innings were a major fluke last season. He walks too many people. Bruney will never have success in the major leagues with a walk rate that high. His trade value will never be higher. Sell high.
Trade or waive Sean Henn. He isn't going to be a useful major league player. The arm surgery really killed him. Henn didn't take to the bullpen well and he's out of time. Maybe he'll clear waivers, but I doubt it.
Keep Scott Proctor in the bullpen. He was very good last season, and hasn't been a full time starter since he was in the Dodger organization.
Promote Chris Britton. He was better than any of our relievers besides Mariano last season. He may have some speed bumps, but he's going to be a good reliever for a long time. Of course, if he has a poor spring training, he can be sent to the minors for more seasoning.
Promote Darrell Rasner. I'm not too sure, but he may also be out of options. He should be promoted and given the longman role. Karstens could probably do a slightly better job, but Karstens also has two option years left. If Rasner struggles, he can be sent down in favor of Karstens or someone else.

I think that this could be a very good bullpen. I think that, barring injury, it could be the best bullpen in the majors. Some quick predictions:

Mariano Rivera, 80 innings, 1.80 ERA
Kyle Farnsworth, 72 innings, 3.10 ERA (yes, he'll recover)
Scott Proctor, 90 innings, 3.70 ERA (Even though he could easily go down with an elbow injury)
Chris Britton, 65 innings, 4.05 ERA
Luis Vizcaino, 65 innings, 3.85 ERA
Mike Myers, 32 innings, 3.00 ERA
Darrell Rasner, 75 innings, 4.50 ERA

That's a very solid little staff. One or more will probably go down with an injury or by simple ineffectiveness, but that is why we have T.J. Beam, Jose Veras, Jeff Kennard, and J.B. Cox at AAA.

Agreed in Principle

2007-01-05T07:49:00.000-08:00

It has been widely reported that the Yankees have agreed in principle to a trade which would send Randy Johnson to Arizona for Jose Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Alberto Gonzalez, and a fourth prospect, rumored to be Steve Jackson.

I don't know a whole lot about these prospects beyond their stat line, but I can interpret those statistics and get a sense of how good they are.

Luis Vizcaino is a solid major league reliever. He has posted an ERA in the mid-threes for three straight years. He is coming off a year where he saw his walk rate increase to 3.99, but also his strikeout rate jump to 9.92. He has always been prone to the home run, but he throws hard enough that he's pretty hard to hit. He is actually better against lefties than righties, which could define his new role in the Yankee bullpen. He'll be somewhere between Scott Proctor's 2006 and Kyle Farnsworth's 2006. He's one year away from free agency.

Ross Ohlendorf is the best of the three prospects in the deal. I would have prefered Micah Owings, but Ohlendorf is not a bad pickup. I've heard mixed reports about how hard he throws, anywhere from 93-95 to 97-99. He probably throws about 95. On top of this, Ohlendorf has excellent control. In 368 minor league innings, he has walked 2.35 per 9. That's not a whole lot worse than Phil Hughes folks. Of course, he's no Phil Hughes. Ohlendorf has a career K/9 of 7.20. His K rate dipped to 6.33 in 2006. His secondary pitches aren't anything special. He throws an average change and slider. The control helps him eat innings. He pitched 182.2 innings in 28 starts in 2006, or 6.53 per start. I think that Ohlendorf could be a major league starter not unlike David Bush. He's a few months away from being major league ready, and won't turn 25 until August. He'd probably be in the 15-18 range if I reranked the top-30. Update: It looks like the radio reports on his velocity were wrong. Ohlendorf throws closer to 92.

Alberto Gonzalez resembles another player named A. Gonzalez. He's an all-field, light hitting shortstop. He is a career .283/.339/.386 hitter in three minor league seasons. He probably won't hit too much better than that in the majors. He's a very good defender, although he's no Ramiro Pena. He won't be any better than a bad starting shortstop or average utility player in the majors. He'll have an A. Gonzalez-like career.

Steve Jackson just had a nice little AA season, but it remains to be seen if he is for real. He floundered in his first full season in the minors, posting a 5.33 ERA in 158 innings in A ball. He's a groundball pitcher, and found a lot of his ground balls falling in for hits. He struck out less than six per nine, and had good but not great walk rates. The Diamondbacks recognized that he may have been a little unlucky and promoted him to AA, where he had great season. In 24 starts, he tossed 149.2 innings with a 2.65 ERA. He struck out 7.52 per nine, and walked 2.71. Jackson throws a sinking fastball in the low 90s. In his three seasons in the minor leagues, Jackson has been very good at preventing the home run (.66 per 9 innings). I can't see Jackson getting any better than someone like Darrell Rasner. He's ready for AAA, but could be the odd man out of a loaded rotation.

Overall, I think that we made out pretty well with this trade. I was really hoping that Owings would be a Yankee, but Ohlendorf is still pretty good. Vizcaino will give us an excuse to trade Brian Bruney while he still has value, and provide another solid arm for our bullpen. Alberto Gonzalez is a younger version of Andy Cannizaro, and Steve Jackson could end up a replacement-level pitcher. All for a 43 year old former ace who just underwent a serious back surgery and had a 5.00 ERA.

Next up: I take a look at the Yankee bullpen.

First 20 Predictions for 2007, Minor Leagues

2007-01-03T15:16:00.000-08:00

Pitchers and Catchers report in six weeks. Six weeks! It seems like the offseason began yesterday.

I'm going to be making a series of predictions for our minor leagues. Here are the first twenty:

Five players who will break out:

1. Marcos Vechionacci
2. Austin Jackson
3. George Kontos
4. Jeff Marquez
5. Angel Reyes

Five players who will falter:

1. Tim Battle
2. Nick Peterson
3. Colin Curtis
4. Anthony Claggert
5. Jason Jones

Five players who will struggle, but will make progress

1. Zach McAllister
2. Jesus Montero
3. Gerardo Rodriguez
4. Ramiro Pena
5. R.J. Swindle

Five Imports who will perform

1. Carlos Urena
2. Abraham Almonte
3. Jesus Montero
4. Pryllis Cuello
5. Juan Miranda

A Larger Trade?

2007-01-03T12:49:00.000-08:00

If Randy Johnson is traded for the rumored package of Micah Owings, Luis Vizcaino, and Ross Ohlendorf, the Yankees will be in an interesting situation. The Yankees will have the following pitchers in their possession:

25 Man Roster, No Options:
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Chien-Ming Wang
Carl Pavano
Kei Igawa (I'm going to assume that he has a clause in his contract)
Mariano Rivera
Kyle Farnsworth
Brian Bruney
Mike Myers
Sean Henn
Scott Proctor
Luis Vizcaino

40 man Roster, Options:
Chris Britton
T.J. Beam
Humberto Sanchez
Jose Veras
Jeff Kennard
Jeff Karstens
Darrell Rasner (he may be out of options. I'm unclear)
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright

In addition to those, they will have at AAA:

Phil Hughes
Tyler Clippard
Steve White
J.B. Cox
Ross Ohlendorf
Micah Owings

That's a lot of pitching. The Yankees have 12 pitchers already stuck on the 25-man roster, and of the 9 others on the 40-man roster, at least five would be worthy of a major league job. At AAA, they have two major league ready starters in Owings and Hughes, with Clippard, White, and Ohlendorf not far off. We're stacked.

Already, speculation has begun as to what we will do with all of this pitching depth. For the next two seasons, we have five rotation spots locked up in the majors. Five spots! If we acquire the two starters from the Diamondbacks, we will have at bare minimum seven starters who are looking for rotation spots, and only five AAA spots to give them. With a loaded AA rotation of Jeff Marquez, Chase Wright, Matt DeSalvo, Jason Jones, and potentially Joba Chamberlain, we don't have a whole lot of opportunity to send these guys down (not to mention that every one of the seven have thoroughly dominated AA).

I agree with the speculation. I think that the Yankees are loading up for a trade. A big trade. I don't really think that Johan Santana is the target, because the Twins are going to contend next season. I think that the Yankees will try to keep Phil Hughes while acquiring a young ace. Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, or even Chris Carpenter are names that I would look for if their respective teams fall out of contention early in the season. Aaron Harang, John Lackey, or Bartolo Colon might also come up.

Or the trade could come before spring training. I don't pretend to know what Brian Cashman is planning. But I do see a tremendous opportunity to acquire an ace. If I am Brian Cashman, I take this opportunity. I just don't touch Phil Hughes.

Doug Mientkiewicz

2007-01-01T08:49:00.000-08:00

Word on the internet lately is that the Yankees are trying to sign Doug Mientkiewicz to be their everyday 1st baseman. The move would force Jason Giambi to the designated hitter spot.

I think that Mientkiewicz would be a good pickup on a small, one year deal. He hit .283/.359/.411 last season, close to he career averages. That is a decent little line - a little above league average - but isn't too impressive for a 1st baseman.

Mientkiewicz makes up for it with his glove. It's hard to quantify defense, but the consensus among people who attempt is that Mientkiewicz is the 2nd or 3rd best defensive 1st baseman in the game. BaseballThinkFactory rates him +12 runs.The Fielding Bible rates him about +9 runs. My instinct is that these numbers lowball Mientkiewicz by a little bit. I see Doug as +15 to +18 runs over a full season.

Overall, that would put Mientkiewicz as an average or slightly below average AL 1st baseman. He would improve our defense tremendously over Jason Giambi - whose defense is equivalent to -26 runs over a full season versus the average at his position. Chien-Ming Wang will appreciate the help. There was also statistical evidence last season with the Mets that Mientkiewicz improved the play of Jose Reyes and David Wright.

I think that there is value in improving our defense, even if he results in a net decrease in run differential. Baseball is a game is attrition, and every time that a ball squeaks passed Jason Giambi or a a ball in the dirt isn't scooped for an out, our pitchers have to throw more pitches. I am going to be writing a full article on our defense as soon as the team makes a decision on who to make the everyday 1st baseman.

Worst case scenario: Mientkiewicz sucks. He is signed to a small, one year deal. We turn him in to a valueable late inning defensive replacement and trade for a Richie Sexson or Adam Dunn. We even may get lucky and have a Cody Ehlers, Eric Duncan or Juan Miranda ready by the all star break. Andy Phillips or Josh Phelps could be an asset for us. Roster flexibility is a nice thing to have.

Salvage Projects: Andy Cannizaro

2006-12-30T16:49:00.000-08:00

Age: 27
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 170 lbs
Drafted: 7th Round in 2001 out of Tulane University
Position: Shortstop
Throws: Right
Bats: Right

Tools: Cannizaro has only one real physical asset: his defensive skills. Minorleaguesplits recently labeled him a top-10 shortstop in the minor leagues. He isn't particularly fast or athletic, but he is very nimble and efficient in the infield. His arm is strong and accurate. With a bat, Cannizaro has few strengths. He puts the ball in play, but rarely will he drive it. He takes a fair share of walks, but nothing staggering enough to make up for his lack of power. He isn't particularly strong swiping bags anymore, even though he was a speed demon in college (he stole 52 stolen bases his final year in 69 games, getting caught just 6 times). Cannizaro has a strong reputation within the organization as a tough, self sacrificing, and hard working guy. A lot of his performance is the result of long hours in preparation and lots of hussle.

Performance: Cannizaro has struggled to hit in the minor leagues. More specifically, Cannizaro has struggled to hit right handed pitchers. In 2006, his best offensive year, Andy hit .276/.367/.380. However, he hit .361/.426/.484 against left handed pitchers. He may have found himself a role in the major leagues. Cannizaro lingered in Trenton for three years, which was probably one year too long. He managed a .314/.385/.396 line in 2004 there. He plays 2nd as well as short. Cannizaro was rewarded with a call up to the major leagues, where he his first MLB home run. His career minor league line is .274/.350/.351, which is about what he should be expected to hit in the majors.

Health: Andy Cannizaro is a healthy man in the prime of his career. He has no health issues to worry about.

2007 Outlook: Andy probably could have filled the back up middle infielder role in the Bronx this season, but the Yankees made the smart move and are looking to preserve their infield depth by pursueing Mark Loretta. If an infielder goes down, Cannizaro is the likely candidate for a call up (although Justin Christian might be the preferable choice to play 2nd). Cannizaro will be playing this season for a bench spot this year and in the future. In addition, I'm sure that the Yankees would love his strong glove in front Phil Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, and Tyler Clippard. He'll start in Columbus.

Comparison: Marco Scutaro

My Take: The really good farm systems in baseball develop a lot of guys like Andy Cannizaro. He's an expendable. He's cheap. He has the skills to man a major league bench spot. I think that if Derek Jeter or Robby Cano go down, Cannizaro could make a decent placeholder. He'll be a replacement level shortstop. I labeled him a "Salvage Project" because he's got one last season to avoid "AAAA" status as passed his prime. He's a depth guy, but that's not a bad thing. Expendable, cheap guys like Cannizar help a team stay flexible.

Works in Progress: Chase Wright

2006-12-30T16:47:00.001-08:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs
Drafted: 3rd Round in 2001 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Left

Stuff: Wright used to throw a lot harder, but right now he throws an 89-91 mph two seam fastball. He throws it from a very deceptive three-quarter angle. The fastball has a lot of movement to it and he uses it to get a significant amount of ground ball outs. He also throws a decent changeup, at about 78-80 mph. The changeup has a surprising amount of sink to it which is his go-to pitch. Wright has been trying everything he possibly can to find some sort of successful breaking pitch. He has tried throwing both a conventional 12-6 77-78 mph curveball and a much slower 70 mph loopy curve. Neither has worked with any success.

Command: Wright will never walk people like Carlos Silva. He has average control at best, although he has learned a thing or two about pitching. He constantly pounds the bottom of the strike zone with his two seamer, without a ton of precision. When he misses, he misses out of the zone. He is going to walk 3-4 per 9 innings in the major leagues, which will limit his utility. That said, he manages to get by despite his command problems.

Health: Wright struggled to stay healthy almost immediately after being drafted. He was not able to pitch more than 100 innings from 2002 until 2005. Part of that was ineffectiveness, but Wright suffered from a series of minor growing pains (the kind of thing that are more the norm than completely healthy seasons for young pitchers). His command was significantly worse than present during this time, which prevented him from putting together any effective innings in the lower A ball leagues. His velocity started north of 93 and ended where it presently is today.

Performance: After these years of terrible play, Wright was still a sleeper pick on a lot of people's radars. Lefties get a lot of chances, and Wright still had the stuff to show promise. He put together a decent campaign in Charleston in 2005, posting an ERA of 3.75 in 144 innings. He struck out 110 and walked 69. Wright had found himself a nitch. He allowed a lot of guys to get on base, but was able to succeed by showing an uncanny ability to prevent the extra base hit. His high walk rate prevented him from winning a spot in the crowded Tampa rotation, so Chase was moved to the bullpen. He pitched excellent, posting a 2.53 ERA in 32 innings through June. He then moved back to the bullpen when the demotion of Zach Kroenke opened up a spot. He then did something very special: he posted an ERA of 1.64 in his next 87.2 innings. For the season he struck out 100 while walking 42 in 119.2 innings on the season. Due to this performance, the Yankees could not hide him from the Rule V draft anymore, and he was added to the 40 man roster a few weeks ago.

Comparison: I have never seen a pitcher who fits his description. Maybe you guys can help me out. Bruce Chen doesn't throw a 2 seamer, but he seems as close as it gets.

Outlook: Wright will head to Trenton, where his two pitch combination will be tested by more advanced hitters. From there, he could very well enter the Yankee depth charts in terms of both starting pitching and the major league bullpen.

My Take: Wright is certainly interesting. He didn't miss my top 30 list by much. I am not at all convinced that Wright can remain a starter in the big leagues. He's a lefty, but he has no sort of breaking pitch and walks a ton of batters. That said, I think that he could very well carve out a little niche for himself. He killed lefties in 2006, getting Chien-Ming Wang-like ground ball results (over 3 per air out) and over a strikeout per inning agains them (29 in 24.2 innings against lefties). He gets righties out, but destroys lefties. Left handed starting pitching is a rarity (especially in the Yankee system), so the Yankees may resist the change. His 2007 will determine a lot.

Salvage Projects: Matt DeSalvo

2006-12-30T16:46:00.002-08:00

Age: 26 (just turned)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 170 lbs
Drafted: Undrafted Free Agent in 2003 out of Marietta College (Division III)
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: DeSalvo is a weird pitcher. He throws a 92-93 sinking fastball. He's 26 years old. He's got a small frame. Why is he still a prospect? Because he throws every other pitch in the book! He throws a changeup, curveball, slider, forkball, 4-seamer and 2-seamer. Only the changeup is a particularly good pitch (It's up there with Marquez's), but the other pitches are all servicable. He uses the changeup to strike people out.

Command: He has trouble repeating his mechanics with his fastball, leading to a lot of walks. Even when his mechanics are on, he likes to work outside of the strike zone, leading to more walks. He kept them in control throughout 2003, 2004, and 2005, only posting sub-standard ERAs when his back was injured. What happened in 2006? DeSalvo started in AAA and posted a 7.58 ERA, walking 34 in 38 innings. He walked 59 in 78 innings after returning to AA. DeSalvo is a smart guy who often gets made fun of by his teammates for reading books all day. Even if his career in baseball doesn't work out, DeSalvo will probably find some sort of job as a biologist.

Health: Besides the brief back injury in 2004, DeSalvo has a clean bill of health. At 26 years old, his arm is fully developed and capable of handling big innings. There has been speculation of a recent injury in 2006, but no word of injury has surfaced. I'll offer my explanation for the problems later.

Performance: DeSalvo set huge strikeout records while playing Division III ball, holding both the single season and overall strikeout records (205 and 603). He actually spent 5 years in college, as he was forced to sit out one year. He didn't get a lot of attention at the draft, and the Yankees got him without having to use a pick. He proceded to blow away the low minor leagues, posting ERAs of 1.84, 0.82, and 1.43 in his first three stops in all three A ball leagues. He came down with a back injury shortly after being promoted to AA in 2004, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in 27 innings. DeSalvo jumped on to prospect radar screens in 2005, when he dominated AA with an ERA of 3.02, striking out 151 in 149 innings. He walked about 4 per 9 however. He was 24 years old and it seemed like he was on the verge of breaking out in to the majors. The Yankees put him on the 40-man and invited him to the major league spring training. He was excellent, leading many (including myself) to advocate his inclusion on the big league roster. It was assumed that he would be the first call up when someone went down with an injury. Unfortunately, something happened. We don't really know what. His control evaded him. His velocity dropped. He just couldn't repeat his delivery. He had an ERA for the season over 6.00, and all of the sudden his big league future seems up in the air as guys like Phil Hughes and Tyler Clippard surpassed him.

Comparison: David Cone. They are both very smart guys who would throw any pitch to a hitter at any time. They both have similar body types. If DeSalvo had been drafted out of High School, they might have followed similar career paths. The Yankees will continue to try to get something out of DeSalvo despite the struggles because he has the potential to be a lesser Cone. He isn't a low-ceiling prospect.

Outlook: DeSalvo will probably head to Trenton again in 2007. He's way behind in the depth charts now, which may put addititonal pressure on him. A good start may see him included in a trade. If he doesn't recover his stride, he risks being labeled as a career minor leaguer.

My Take: I liked DeSalvo a lot entering this season, but I made the mistake of ignoring his walk rate. He's definately got a lot of strikeouts in him, but he can't put so many people on base. He's already succeeded in the high minor leagues, so I think we can discount 2006 as any kind of statement on his baseball abilities. Two things went wrong for DeSalvo. First off, the Yankees messed with his mechanics. They were trying to get some more velocity and control out of Matt by simplifying his delivery. Why they made the decision to change a successful pitcher's approach at 25 years old is beyond me. Beyond that, the DeSalvo suffered from unspecified "mental problems" throughout the season. What could they be? They could come from an emotional let down after not making the roster in Spring Training, or he could be having girl problems or something. I'm not going to pretend that I know what his problems are. 26 isn't too old for a prospect, but 27 is. If he's not in AAA by the end of the year, DeSalvo is in trouble. He's taking up a spot on the 40 man roster and could find himself on waivers. If he does succeed, he's certainly capable of a 3.80-4.20 ERA range. He'll be fun to watch too.

Work in Progress: P.J. Pilittere

2006-12-30T16:46:00.001-08:00

Age: 25 (just turned)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 13th Round in 2004 out of Cal State University
Position: Catcher
Hits: Right

Tools: No one is going to confuse Pilittere with a supreme athlete. He isn't fast. He doesn't have a particularly strong arm. His bat isn't great. He has gap power at best. Pilittere is the rare baseball player who may drill out a career for himself with his final tool - his mind. Granted, there is no way for me to independently varify if the reports about Pilittere's mental abilities are true, but there does seem to be a general consensus: P.J. has a strategic mind. It has benefitted him at the plate despite his lack of physical gifts and talent, and it has helped him in handling pitchers. Every publication that is available to me raves about how he makes pitchers better. Again, this isn't something that I can verify.

Performance: P.J. was on a couple of radars as a future no-hit backup catcher. Unfortunately, the knock against him was that he lacked any incredible defensive skills - he is above average behind the plate at best. He didn't hit much - .215/.252/.264 and .250/.320/.381 at Staten Island between 2004 and 2005. Since he was getting old, and the Yankees were incredibly thin on catchers (and still are), P.J. was pushed to Tampa, which it turns out was a good move. P.J. hit .302/.355/.412 in his first full season of professional ball, striking out 24 times and walking 20 times in 291 at bats. He showed decent power with 5 home runs, 2 triples and 14 doubles, and recieved boatloads of praise from Tampa pitchers. The Yankees, probably with the intent of rushing him to a backup position in 2008, decided to send him to Arizona to get more playing time against tougher competition. P.J. responded to the challenge, hitting .394/.444/.545 in a very small sample of 33 at bats (Catchers always recieve sparse playing time in the AFL). He hit 1 home run, 2 doubles, walked three times and struck out 5 times. For 2006, that brings his final line to .311/.366/.429. He also hit .373 with RISP. Everything considered, that is a pretty good line.

Health: Pilittere has never had any health problems. He's a pretty average sized catcher and shouldn't have any age or weight related concerns in the near future.

Comparison: I was tempted to say Joe Girardi at first, but I thought about it and the two don't really resemble one another. P.J. has a little more bat, while Joe was better behind the plate and was more athletic. Brad Ausmus is a better comparison. I'm not sure that Pilittere will start as many games as Ausmus, but their levels of performance will be fairly similar.

My Take: I'm not sure what to make of Pilittere. He's no doubt the only decent Yankee catcher who has played higher than Charleston. He has the abilities to be some kind of major league backup one day, in part due to having a marginally better bat than the Wil Nieves/Sal Fasano brand of catchers. He might have a short prime period where he can be an average starting catcher. I can see a lot of .270/.340/.380 lines in his future, which isn't totally unacceptable for your catcher. We'll see how he handles the high minor leagues, as his AFL line is too small of a sample to really tell much. He's got the reputation for a fierce leader and near player-coach. If he fails as a prospect, we might see him resurface as a minor league manager or scout within the organization.

Up and Coming: Gerardo Rodriguez

2006-12-30T16:45:00.000-08:00

Age: 19
Height: 6'1"
Height: 195 lbs
Drafted: Signed as an international free agent in 2005
Position: 1st Base
Throws: Right
Bats: Right

Tools: Rodriguez is very, very raw, but he can hit. He's so raw that there isn't a whole lot of scouting information on him, but he is reputed to be talented. He's no base stealer, but he is athletic enough. He should be able to hold down 1st base fairly well once he adjusts to the position. Rodriguez used to be a catcher, but for some reason (I don't have any reports on his defensive abilities) he was switched to 1st base. His main tool is power. Reports are slim, but Rodriguez may be a 60 power guy. He really good at getting the ball in the air, which will keep his average up a lot of strikeouts.

Performance: Rodriguez is very young, and because of that he has played only one season in the minor leagues. He hit what is at first glance an unimpressive .285/.342/.445 line. However, one must adjust for context. Minorleaguesplits.com lits his park adjusted line at .321/.375/.496. The Gulf Coast League is probably the hardest in baseball to find power, both because of enviromental factors and the youth of the prospects involved. Rodriguez also hit for significantly more power when away from his home park. Regardless, Rodriguez was likely the best position player on the team. However, he does have his weaknesses. Rodriguez struck out quite a bit, King 34 times in 38 games.

Health: Gerardo is too young to say anything substantial about his health.

2007 Outlook: Gerardo impressed a lot of people in 2006. He hit 3 home runs and 13 doubles in 2006, which is equal to 55 doubles and 13 home runs during a full 162 game season. He'll head to Charleston to try and turn some of those doubles in to long bombs. Now that he is playing 1st instead of catcher, he can concentrate on hitting. He'll be able to put on some more muscle. He'll learn the new position. He is ticketed for Charleston. He could very well be in Tampa by year's end.

Comparison: Damned if I know. I guess I could see some of Nick Swisher in Rodriguez, but who knows at this point.

My Take: There is precious little information about Rodriguez available. He's a young player who is very well thought of by the Yankees. He is a 1st baseman with tons of power. He had a great season in the Gulf Coast League. He won't turn 20 until next October. Honestly, there isn't a whole lot to go on. I did not include him in my top 50 because of his lack of a a minor league pedigree. He could very well run up the charts next year. My prediction? 25+ home runs and 35+ doubles next season. As a 1st baseman, he'll have to put up those kinds of numbers.

Works in Progress: Brett Smith

2006-12-30T16:44:00.000-08:00

Age: 23 (24 next August)
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220 lbs
Drafted: 2nd Round in 2004 out of the University of California-Irvine
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Smith throws a fastball around 90-93 with a little bit of tail sink when he is throwing it right, thanks to his height. When his mechanics get out of whack, it straightens out. His performance usually follows when his fastball straights out. He also uses his height to sink down a very effective 80 mph changeup, which has been his bread and butter since college. He left college with a decent slider and curveball, but he only throws the curveball right now. It's about the same speed as the changeup and gets him a few strikeouts, although it's an average pitch. Smith pitches to contact and induces a decent amount of ground balls (1.66 g/f in 2006).

Command: Brett Smith has average control and command. He lives at the knees. His deceptive height and sinking arsenal keep batters from teeing off on his 90 mph fastball, but also lead to about 3 walks per 9 innings. He keeps his pitch count down by pitching to contact, but that also makes him very hittable.

Health: One of Smith's big assets is his superb health record. He pitched two 100+ inning seasons in college and then has followed it up with two 140+ inning seasons in the minors. At 23, Smith has passed the period in his career where arm injuries develop. I put a lot of stock in a healthy pitcher.

Performance: Smith had a very good college career, culminating with a 2.54 ERA junior year where he struck out 113 in 113 innings. He earned himself a 2nd round draft pick, but didn't sign until after the 2004 season was over. He spent 2004 between Tampa and Charleston, where he combined for an ERA of 4.67. It wasn't an entirely unsucessful year, as he managed to strike out 95 and walk just 31 in 140.2 innings. The strikeouts weren't encouraging, but the Yankees bet that they would eventually come. His control had actually improved since college. Smith spent all of 2006 in Tampa, where he had a pretty good year. He led the league in innings with 158 and was 5th in strikeouts with 119. However, his control went from excellent to average with 56 walks. His ERA was good at 3.81, but that may be decieving. Smith struggled at home, posting a 4.85 ERA. His ERA was 3.01 away from home. I really don't think that the ballpark was the reason behind this, but it is a plausible theory. Smith's mechanical problems may have surfaced in front of the home crowd. My guess is that it was just dumb luck that his problems happened to occur at home.

Comparison: It's a hard one, but I'd say Jon Garland when the year isn't 2005. Garland is a tall pitcher who creates a lot of sink, pitching to contact and eating innings. Garland relies more on a breaking pitch than Smith, but besides that they are very similar pitchers.

My Take: I'm not sure what to think about Smith. I think that he won't survive the major leagues with a WHIP of 1.40. He walks a few too many. If he can get his walks down from the 60-70 range and back in to the 45-55 range, I think that he'll manage to eat innings at the major league level. He's still only 23 years old and will get a crack at Trenton in 2007. I think that Smith will either be a 7th starter in the Yankee organization or a 5th starter on someone else's team. There are just too many higher ceiling arms in front of him. Still, a young innings eater will have value to the major league team. He should be ready for a trade or call up by the time he turns 25, in August of 2008. I think that he is a fairly safe bet to at least be some kind of below average major league starter.

Works in Progress: Justin Christian

2006-12-30T16:43:00.000-08:00

Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lbs
Drafted: Signed in 2004 out of Independent League River City
Position: 2b/CF
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

Tools: Justin Christian is fast. Very fast. Faster than a speeding bullet. Christian uses his speed to get on base, steal bases, and play excellent defense. The good news? He has a lot more than just speed! Most 80 speed guys would make Luis Castillo look like a slugger. Christian? Nope! He actually has an average amount of power. He has a short and compact swing that allows him to drive balls to all fields and put the ball in play. He projects to strike out only 70-75 times per season, which gives him plenty of opportunities to leg out ground balls. He used to play 2nd base, but a weak arm got him a ticket for centerfield, where his 80 speed was put to use. He is a plus defender at the position.

Performance: Christian was one of a half dozen signings that the Yankees found in independent leagues a few years ago. They did their scouting well, finding that Christian had overcome his college-day woes to become a lethal threat at the plate and on the basepaths. Christian hit .450/.518/.700 in 30 games for River City, which could get a lot of people's attention. He stole 26 games while only being caught twice. The Yankees sent Christian to Staten Island, where he put up an indifferent .274/.336/.438 line, with 14 stolen bases and 4 CS in 50 games. Christian would come in to his own in 2005, hitting .303/.366/.466 with 55 stolen bases, only 5 CS, and 11 home runs in 125 games between Tampa and Charleston. He was sent to Trenton this season, where he would meet his first stumbling block in his professional career, hitting .276/.341/.394 in 129 games. He started the season off very slow, hitting .253/.316/.330 in his first three months. However, Christian adjusted, hitting .287/.354/.379 in July and .321/.392/.554 in August. He stole 68 bases while being caught only 13 times.

Health: Christian had major rotator cuff problems in college, but he has since overcome his injury woes. In the prime of his life, Justin Christian is completely healthy.

2007 Outlook: Christian will be sent to Scranton, where he will be high on the Yankee's outfield depth charts. Christian will try to prove that his late-season adjustment to more advanced pitchers was for real. A good deal of his future will be determined by how much power is able to hit for in Scranton. If he can maintain a slugging percentage of about .400, he could very well be a valueable major league starting centerfielder. If it dips back down to the .350 or lower range, he may not be more than a 25th man.

Comparison: Scott Podsednik. I think that Christian's career path could very well mirror Podsednik's. When Podsednik is hitting well, taking his walks, and driving a few balls to the outfield, he is a very good player. When he's off by just a little, he is a glorified pinch runner who is a liability with the bat. We'll have a better idea about which version Justin will be by the middle of 2007.

My Take: I probably should have included Christian on my top-30 prospect list. I have never been a big fan of stolen bases as the primary weapon of a prospect, but I think that Christian brings something special to the table. There are two different kinds of stolen base threats in my mind. The first are 95% of speedsters out there; guys like Derek Jeter, Luis Castillo, Bobby Abreu, or Alfonso Soriano. These are very fast players who are good at picking up on a pitcher's move. They can steal 25-45 bases per year, but most of their stolen bases are stolen off the pitcher. If the pitcher isn't paying attention to them, they go. They are opportunistic. Then there are the 5% of speedsters who have the instincts and legs to steal a base when everybody knows that they are going. I'd say that Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, Dave Roberts, Corey Patterson, and Ichiro Suzuki are probably the only MLB players who meet this standard. Scott Podsednik did a few years ago, but not since he injured his hamstring in 2005. These are the guys who can really throw a team and a pitcher off every time that they are on the basepaths. I think that Christian has that kind of ability. He is part of an elite group of prospects. However, he also has the ability to get on base at an above average rate and drive enough balls to the outfield to leg out some doubles and triples. On top of it all, he plays plus defense. He probably won't ever get a chance to start without some sort of catastrophic injury, but he'll be a valueable bench player until age slows him down.

Works in Progress: Daniel McCutchen

2006-12-30T16:42:00.000-08:00

Age: 24 (turned in September)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs
Drafted: 13th Round in 2006 out of the University of Oklahoma
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: McCutchen throws a pretty standard 92 mph fastball. It isn't particularly straight or live. He was throwing harder during his time in relief at Oklahoma, but settled in to the 92 mph range once he was converted to a starter. However, his breaking stuff is what really seperates him. I've been reading quote after quote of Big-12 hitters talking about being fooled by McCutchen's curve/split combination. Several hitters said "We just kept swinging at pitches in the dirt. We couldn't do anything about it". McCutchen's three different speeds really aid him in keeping hitters off balance.

Command: McCutchen's command was decent throughout college, walking about 1 batter every three innings. He projects to have average major league command and control if everything goes well. Typically, he spots his curveball better than his splitter. The difference in break between the two serves to keep hitters off balance a lot, getting him a lot of swings and misses.

Performance: McCutchen was a late bloomer. He started his college career in 2002 with division II Central Oklahoma. He transfered to the University of Oklahoma, but was forced to sit out in 2003. He spent 2004 and 2005 as a good-but-not-great reliever, and finally blossomed as a 5th year senior starting pitcher in 2006. Overall, he pitched 313 innings, striking out 329 and walking 96 in route to a 4.02 ERA. He pitched an impressive yet stressful 148 innings in 2006. Because of this, the Yankees only let him pitch more than 3 innings every five days once. Overall, he pitched 29 innings in 9 appearances, striking out 29 and walking 6. His ERA was a sparkling 1.86.

Health: Its all too good to be true right? A guy with a passable fastball and two good breaking pitches, no control problems, and a stellar start to his professional career? Daniel McCutchen was suspended for 50 games following a failed drug test in August. Update - Looks like I was acting on bad information. Dan's drug test was actually pretty benign. He tested positive for a prescription amphetamine.

2007 Outlook: McCutchen will likely be headed to Tampa. He's 24 years old and will have to move fast. I personally think that McCutchen will head back to the bullpen. He's proven to be very durable, but the Yankees won't have a whole lot of room for him in the future. He's blocked by a dozen pitchers higher in the pecking order.

Comparison: I really don't know. Steve Trachsel with a little more velocity.

My Take: I think that McCutchen is too good to be true. I think that he either had a hot couple of months or a juiced couple of months. He wasn't very good in college, despite good peripheral numbers. His upside is average, but he has only one season of more than 84 innings pitched under his belt. Still, he got great reviews from his peers in college, and could have made a simple mistake after entering professional baseball with performance enhancers. McCutchen's a smart guy - he made all-scholar teams - so maybe he'll be smart enough to rebound. He's going to be halfway to his 25th birthday by the time he returns from his steroid suspension. 50 games is really going to hurt him. Maybe I'll be wrong, but if I am McCutchen I would look for another career.

Prospect Profile: Phil Hughes (#1)

2006-12-29T21:26:00.000-08:00

Age: 20
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220 lbs
Drafted: 1st Round in 2004 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Hughes would be an effective pitcher with a 90 mph fastball. That said, Phil Hughes is going to be more than an effective pitcher. He is capable of throwing 96-97 mph, but prefers to sit comfortably at 93-94 or 94-95 on a good day in order to command it better. That said, he is capable of reaching back and throwing a located fastball at 97 if the situation commands it. He locates his fastball with the best of them. Think Curt Schilling as a comparison for the fastball.

Curveball: Two years ago, Hughes did not throw a curveball. Maybe he knew how to toss one on the side in the backyard, but he couldn't throw it in a game. What happened? Nardi Contreras told him to shelf his slider and use a curveball instead. What did Phil Hughes do? He almost immediately began to throw one of the best if not the best curveball in the minor leagues. It is a deadly strikeout weapon that lands on it's spot every time, with a solid 1-7 break.

Changeup: When Hughes made the decision to not throw his plus slider and instead focus all of his breaking effort on the curveball, it quickly became clear that he would need a 3rd pitch. Enter the changeup. He throws a 78-79 mph changeup fairly well, although it is not as developed as his other pitches. That will change. The Yankees put him on a constant diet of changeups throughout the 2006 season, forcing him to throw it as often as his curveball. It worked. He is still a step away from throwing the changeup in any situation (he goes to his curve with men on), but he is getting a better feel for it. Hughes would benefit from a few innings in AAA to finally nail it down without the big league pressure on him. Right now it will sometimes make hitters look foolish or sometimes fall way out of the strike zone. If Hughes' track record is at all predictive, expect him to throw it as well as he does his fastball.

Slider: While he still occassionally throws it on the side, Hughes does not throw his slider in games anymore. It used to be his signature pitch, but he has taken so well to the curveball that the Yankees see no reason to throw both. Hughes himself says that he struggles to command two different breaking balls at once.

Command: Lots of pitchers have a 65 fastball, 70 curveball, and 60 changeup. Phil Hughes compliment them with 70 control. He can put his fastball and curveball wherever he wants, in any count, without fail. He barely walks anyone. He barely leaves anything on the broader part of the plate for the home run. If a ball bounces in the dirt, he meant to do it. He has a career BB/9 ratio of 2.05 (which is roughly Mike Mussina level). He is a smart pitcher who always thinks one step ahead of the batter.

Performance: Few pitchers excell in the minor leagues to the extent that Phil Hughes has. Simply put, he has out classed his competition. He was drafted in 2004, but the Yankees decided to play it safe with their new jewel (he missed time with a stubbed toe) and only allowed him to pitch 5 innings in the GCL, where he didn't allow a run and struck out 8. An omen of things to come? Yes. He started 2005 in Charleston, where he would spend his last moments under the radar. Hughes and his new curveball showed the 19 year olds in A ball who was boss, pitching 68.2 innings to a 1.97 ERA, striking out 72 and walking 16 (and allowing just 1 HR). He earned a promotion to Tampa, where he pitched the worst baseball of his career - throwing 17.2 innings of 3.06 ERA ball, striking out 21 and walking 4 before being shut down with mild shoulder soreness. Prospect watchers, including myself, got very worried for a moment. However, word leaked out during the offseason that Hughes had simply hit the Yankee's prefered inning count for the season and was going to be shut down regardless of injury concerns.

Hughes made just about everyone's top prospect lists after this, finding himself anywhere from the 20s to the 40s. Baseball Prospectus predicted that Hughes would have a huge 2006 with their PECOTA projection system, saying that Hughes was the second most major league ready starter in the minors, to Liriano. It was predicted that Hughes could be called up from 17 innings in Tampa and post a 3.80 ERA. Hughes did indeed have a huge 2006, which most of you probably know about. He dismantled A+ ball, but struggled for a few starts in Trenton (as can be expected from a guy who had not yet turned 20). He posted a 3.99 ERA in May, which certainly startled people. Hughes then did his normal thing: adjustment. He posted an ERA of 1.29 in his final 10 starts, striking out 71 in 48.2 innings while walking 11 and not allowing a single home run. He finished the year with a single playoff start against Portland, pitching 6 innings (his leash on innings was loosened for the playoffs) while striking out 13 and walking one and allowing one earned run. His totals for the entire minor league season and playoffs were 152 innings, 182 strikouts, 35 walks, 5 home runs allowed and a 2.13 ERA. He could have pitched more innings (he rolled through batters without effort), but the Yankees kept him on a 5 inning limit for much of the season.

Health: There were concerns about Hughes' health coming in to this season. There are no longer any concerns. It became very clear that the concerns were simply the Yankees being extremely cautious with their golden arm. They have succeeded in keeping his innings at exactly where they wanted - around 100 innings in 2005 and 150 in 2006. He should be ready for 200 in 2007. There is no reason to be concerned about his health.

Ceiling: None. None at all. Hughes has the ability to be a once in a lifetime pitcher. He has the ability to be the best pitcher in the major leagues. There is nothing stopping him. There is nothing more than I can say. He won't put up Pedro Martinez 1999-2000 numbers, but besides that you can compare him to any rookie phenom that has come up and dominated in recent years. Jorge Posada said that Hughes has a better arm than anyone on the Yankees - including guys like Mariano Rivera and Randy Johnson.

Reaching Ceiling: He's nearly there. Hughes made AA hiters look like they should go back to little league. By the time he adjusted to the level, it was almost too easy for him. Minor league hitters are too easy for him. He has everything that you could possibly ask of a prospect, and he has been expertly handled by the organization.

Comparison: A healthy Mark Prior. I used the same comparison for Betances, but I need to draw a distinction. If Betances overcomes the traditional obstacles associated with any minor league pitcher drafted out of High School, he can top out at Mark Prior's level and style. Phil Hughes has indeed overcomed those obstacles and has found himself at the brink of the major leagues with Mark Prior-like performance levels and almost the exact same pitching style. They both had 95 mph fastballs. They both located their fastballs with Mussina-like precision. They both had filthy curveballs. They both throw a similar changeup. Prior posted a 2.43 ERA in 211 innings in 2003 at age 22. Hughes is capable of the same. Hopefully he will not be cursed with the same injuries (which the Yankees have done their best to prevent).

My Take: Tyler Clippard has his control. Ian Kennedy has his brain. Joba Chamberlain has his power. Christian Garcia has his curveball. Jeff Marquez has his changeup. Phil Hughes has it all. I have never seen a pitcher without a weakness in the minor leagues before I saw Phil Hughes. Usually power pitchers have a lack of control, or control pitchers lack power, or power pitchers with control lack secondary pitches, or they have injury issues, or they are 25 before they figure everything out, or they are inconsistent. Hughes has no weakness. All of his numbers would be phenominal if he was 24 years old, but Hughes put up these K/BBs, K/9s, BB/9s and ERAs as a 19/20 year old in AA. We're looking at something special folks, and he could be the ace of a new dynasty. Hughes has it all, and we're going to see that first hand when he gets called up in 2007.

Prospect Profile: Jose Tabata (#2)

2006-12-29T21:25:00.000-08:00

Age: 18
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 160 lbs
Drafted: Signed Out of Venezuela in 2005 for 500,000 dollars
Position: Outfield (Where is yet to be determined)
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

Batting: Jose Tabata is all about the projection of his bat. This is one weakness that I have in evaluating prospects. I'm no scout. I can only rely on the consensus of others. The consensus is that Jose Tabata has a big league bat capable of Manny Ramirez type numbers. I doubt that to an extent, even though I do not doubt that Tabata has the ability to be a major impact player, but I do doubt his power potential. Tabata is a small baseball player. He's not Phil Rizzuto, but there is no way to get around Tabata's size. He isn't a lot smaller than Manny Ramirez, but Ramirez is a special type of player. Ramirez is a hall of fame talent who comes along once in a generation, and immediately hit a ton of home runs in the minor leagues at Tabata's age. Tabata is "built like a fire hydrant", but can he really hit 40+ home runs? I doubt it. Tabata does however have two very good skills that he shares with Manny Ramirez: near inhuman plate discipline for an 18 year old and a tremendous ability to get base hits. He will hit a ton of doubles and get his share of extra base hits. Scouts rave about his swing and his ability to keep his hands in. He'll be a batting title contender if everything turns out right.

Defense: Tabata's position is uncertain. At present, he has plus range in the outfield and an average to above average arm. He has been playing left field in Charleston. He could probably be an average centerfielder, but the Yankees played him in the corners in 2006. This was in part due to Tim Battle and Austin Jackson being in Charleston for much of the season, who don't have the bats to hold down a corner position. We'll see if the Yankees try to shift Tabata back to center, but his likely destination is probably left field. He wouldn't have a terrible arm in right field, but it would be average at best there. With hitting potential like Tabata's, position is less of a concern. Still, it would be nice if he were to end up in Centerfield for at least his prime years.

Performance: Tabata spent his age 17 season showing the Gulf Coast League who was boss, hitting .314/.382/.417 in 44 games with 22 stolen bases, 15 walks, 14 strikeouts, 3 home runs, one triple, and five doubles. The power numbers may have been down, but Tabata had a phenominal season for a 17 year old (he actually didn't turn 17 until August of that year). He immediately show toward the tops of prospect lists, but he would really prove himself in 2006 when he was sent to Charleston. During his first three months, he owned A ball hitters, hitting .321/.432/.450, all before his 18th birthday. Unfortunatly, a wrist injury began to sap his power and playing time in June, resulting in a long fade which would land him on the disabled list. He was thought to be healthy after the season ended and was sent to the DWL, where he hit .288/.431/.404 against intense competition before going down with the same wrist injury.

2007 Outlook: If he's able to play (and nothing that we've heard so far indicate the contrary) he will be sent to High A Tampa, where he will be among the youngest if not the youngest player in the league yet again. He made strides in the power department in 2006, but the Yankees will be looking for a lot of those doubles to turn in to home runs. He is going to be in a tough ballpark for hitters, so the numbers may be a little more subtle than they could be. The Yankees will probably keep him there for the entire year, unless he really blows the league away (which is certainly possible). Tabata is years ahead of schedule. Health will be an issue, which I will discuss later. If the Yankees hope to keep him at centerfield, they will have to make a move back there in 2007. Tampa should be an exciting place.

Health: This wrist issue is a major concern about Tabata. No one thought that it was serious when he left Charleston, because presumably the Yankees would have a short leash on an 18 year old. But when Tabata went down in the DWL, a lot of people (myself included) grew worried. Very little information has come out of the Yankees' organization about this, so I can only speculate, which I won't. Wrist injuries can be very tough, and statisically this one clearly hurt his play. Other health issues revolve around his frame and weight. He has a lot of growing to do, and a lot of people are speculating that he could end up with "chunky" legs. This could hurt his range in the outfield. As good as Manny Ramirez is with the bat, we don't want Tabata looking like him in the field.

Ceiling: Very high. In my opinion it is still limited due to size, but Tabata certainly has the ability to hit like an MVP candidate. If nothing goes terribly wrong, he is going to hit #3 somewhere someday for a long time. I don't think that he has the kind of ceiling that a guy like Montero has, simply for lack of power. Of course, this all changes if Tabata ends up in centerfield, where he could be on a Carlos Beltran/Vernon Wells level.

Reaching Ceiling: Tabata will have plenty of chances to fail in the coming years. He probably has at least two and a half minor league seasons to go at bare minimum, and these injury issues don't make things any better. For an 18 year old to be as high as Tabata is on everybody's radar is very special. I think that we'll see a quick rise out of Jose.

Comparison: Somewhere between Kirby Puckett and Brian Giles. Tabata is going to take more walks than Puckett (resulting in a higher batting average), but hit for less power than Brian Giles did in his prime (Giles also got on a very slow start to his career). We'll see how his home run stroke comes along in time.

My Take: Again, Tabata is the kind of prospect that my methods have trouble analyzing. His statistical pedigree is strong, especially when he remembers to take his walks. That said, I have to rely on a lot of people agreeing about his hitting projection. I think that position will determine a lot about Tabata's future. If he goes to a corner, I think that Tabata will have some all star years but won't be considered a top-5 player at his position. I think that Tabata could put up numbers not all that far from Bernie William's numbers in centerfield, or at the very least hit .310/.400/.520 every year. A year from now, we'll have a better picture of where Jose Tabata is going. I'd place my bets on a more optimistic outcome than otherwise.

Prospect Profile: Joba Chamberlain (#3)

2006-12-29T21:24:00.000-08:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 230
Drafted: 1st Supplemental Round in 2006 out of University of Nebraska
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Chamberlain is a big guy. He has a big fastball. Chamberlain throws 94-97 with plenty of life. There were reports out of Hawaii that he was being clocked at 98-99. Chamberlain's weight problem prevented him in the past from maintaining his ideal fastball throughout the later stages of each start, but he has whipped himself into shape over the last two years. More on his weight later. Chamberlain locates his fastball with the best of them.

Changeup: Chamberlain has an average 80-82 mph changeup. The Yankees are working on it and believe that it has a chance to become significantly better. He has throw it a lot in Hawaii, using it to get ahead in the counts.

Slider: Chamberlain has an above average to plus slider, which is his strikeout pitch. A typical power pitcher, you can imagine how he uses it. He has command with it, rarely leaving it up in the zone (although, like most pitchers, he can't really get a called strike with it). It is his best secondary pitch.

Curveball: Chamberlain has an above average curveball. Chamberlain may or may not abandon it as his primary "slow" pitch in favor the changeup. Lately the Yankees have been encouraging curveballs over sliders for their high school draft picks, so we'll see how Chamberlain goes.

Command: Chamberlain has plus control, but not plus command. Of course, he has the advantage of throwing 97. He'll pound the zone for strikes, but won' tbe able to hit a one inch box like Kennedy or Clippard, but he won't walk the ballpark either. Unlike those two, Chamberlain can afford to lay the occasional fastball over the middle of the plate. He illustrated his control in the HBL this winter, striking out 46 while somehow walking 3.

Performance: Chamberlain does not have an Ian Kennedy resume. He played for one year for a Division II college, weighing close to 290 pounds. He had a strong fastball but not much else, posting an ERA ove 5.00. He transfered to Nebraska, and set about improving his weight. The results were excellent, and he pitched 118.2 innings of of 2.81 ERA ball. He struck out 130 while walking just 33 and allowing just 7 home runs. He entered 2006 as a top-5 pitching prospect in the draft, but a triceps injury scared a lot of people away. His performance suffered early on, although he would eventually recovery and end the season well. He pitched 89.1 innings of 3.93 ERA ball, striking out 102 and walking 34. He allowed 8 home runs. The injury scared scared off a lot of people, causing Chamberlain to sink to the Yankees at the 41st pick. He signed late, preventing him from pitching in Staten Island. Instead, the Yankees sent him to Hawaii, where he blossomed. He pitched 37.2 innings of 2.63 ERA ball, posting that mind blowing strikeout to walk ratio of 46:3. The hitting competition wasn't great in Hawaii, but those numbers are beyond insane. Chamberlain was clearly the best pitcher in the state.

2007 Outlook: The looked like a foregone conclusion two months ago that Chamberlain would start the year in Tampa. He hadn't played an ounce of professional baseball and hadn't blown away NCAA hitters. However, as a power pitcher with tons of life on his fastball, Chamberlain may find wooden bats easier than Kennedy might. His HBL performance was nothing short of dazzling, and the hitters there are supposed to be roughly equal to High A ball level. The Yankees may push him and start him at Trenton, especially considering that Trenton may be the only minor league club that the Yankees aren't going to have a huge surplus of rotation spots. He could excell and could find himself in the major league picture as early as Spring Training of 2008.

Health: Chamberlain has two primary health concerns. First, he has weight problems. He used to be downright fat. He weighted over 280 pounds, with some claiming he was closer to 300. He had all sorts of knee and muscle problems throughout his early college career. However, someone must have lit a fire under his fat ass because he lost over 50 pounds and began pitching like an ace. The knee problems have gone away, but his triceps started to act up at the begining of this year. The injury hurt his velocity and his control, and as a result all of his numbers dipped. It was enough to make teams shy away from his top-level stuff and let him fall to the Yankees at 41.

Ceiling: Chamberlain is a bona fide potential #1 starter. He has the control, power, and secondary stuff to do it all. He has been reported to be an unceasing competitor who wears his emotions on his sleeves. He certainly has the ability to strike out 200 while posting an ERA over 3.50, which makes him an ace in my book. He'll probably pitch his fair share of innings and even have a shot at a Cy Young down the line.

Reaching his Ceiling: Time will tell whether or not Chamberlain's triceps injury is serious. I expect that it is not. His weight problem will on the other hand be a constant issue, and similar problems have derailed the careers of many a Bartolo Colon.

Comparison: C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia is a little bit taller and wider, but they have the same basic pitching style. They both have a strong fastball which sits at 94-95, and both throw a slider/curve/changeup setup. Sabathia's achilles heel prior to his successful 2006 season involved a lot of maturity issues, which Chamberlain (who is already a father) does not seem to have. The college polish is certainly there.

My Take: I originally has Chamberlain rated outside of the top-10. I had ranked the Top 30 Yankee prospects right after Detroit knocked us out. Chamberlain came in with a good reputation but the injury concerns and lack of any professional experience was a knock against him. At the time, the report was that he was also only throwing 92-93. Things changed. He regained his velocity, stayed in shape, and utterly dominated Hawaii. I usually don't put a lot of stock in winter league numbers, but a 46:3 K/BB ratio is insane. On top of that, two of those walks came in his first start, where he pitched only 2 innings. His numbers were unrelenting after that. Between the rise in velocity, the numbers, and the speed that he learned a new changeup, Chamberlain rocketed in my eyes. This is one of those "gut feeling" picks.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Clippard (#4)

2006-12-29T21:23:00.000-08:00

Age: 21 (22 in February)
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 200
Drafted: 9th round in 2003 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Tyler Clippard does not throw hard. He throws between 88-92. Kennedy has his smarts, Chamberlain has his fastball, but Clippard has his control. He can place the ball within inches of where he wants it - every time. The fastball is certainly an obstacle to success, but Clippard has not faltered. Despite the big frame, he hasn't aided any velocity to the fastball after gaining over 15 pounds of muscle. That is all right, because his other pitches get him by.

Curveball: Clippard dominated the low minor leagues by combining great control with a great changeup against hitters as young as he was. He got strikeouts like crazy by hitting a corner or expertly placing a ball just out of the strike zone. However, this is not an approach which will get whiffs out of more advanced hitters. Clippard started to learn the curveball in the begining of 2005, and Nardi Contreras yet again succeeded in teaching a true plus pitch to his pupil. Clippard quickly adopted his approach with his new out pitch, thrown at about 76-77 mph.

Changeup: Clippard has long thrown the changeup, but over the past two years it has been his trademark. He combined an already deceptive delivery with the ability to throw an 80 mph change without any indication that it is coming. He throws it for strikes and is willing to use it in any count. It isn't as good as Jeff Marquez's, but it isn't far behind.

Command: Clippard can throw all three of his pitches for strikes very consistently. His strike throwing capabilities have allowed him to eat innings throughout his minor league career. He puts the ball exactly where he wants it. His command isn't perfect, but it is very close. His height makes his top-down delivery very deceptive.

Performance: Tyler Clippard has about as good of a minor league pedigree as it gets. He pitched 149 or more innings in each of his full major league seasons, posting a collective ERA of 3.33. In 513.1 total innings, he has struck out 557 and walked just 126. He has steadily advanced from league to league, pitching in all three levels before AAA without fail. He appeared to falter to start off 2006 - posting of 4.07, 4.06, and 5.81 in April, May, and June. The stuff-crazy pundits were saying "See... we were right! He can't be that good with a 90 mph fastball". Of course, stat heads like myself were saying "Hmm... his ERAs don't match his peripherals. Something is up". Clippard had struck out 87 and walked just 30 in 86 innings, allowing 8 home runs. Statistically, he was doing the same thing he had done in the two years previous. He was either getting unlucky or his defense was letting him down. Clippard recovered, playing some of the best baseball in the minor leagues in the remainder of the season, pitching 80 more innings with an ERA of 1.91 and 92 strikeouts to just 25 walks. Clippard was top-5 in the minor leagues in both innings and strikouts.

2007 Outlook: Clippard has a luxery right now. A lot of ballclubs would take Clippard's mind blowing second half and set him up in the major leagues right away. However, Clippard is a finesse pitcher. Finesse pitchers take a little longer than power pitchers to adjust to new leagues. Clippard will benefit from a near-full season at AAA, and I would be very surprised if we see him in the major leagues in 2007 before September. He has the talent to do it, but he is behind Karstens, Rasner, Hughes, Sanchez, and White in the depth charts. That is not a knock on Clippard - as he is only 21 years old. We'll see him starting full time in 2008.

Health: One of the reasons that Clippard is rated so high is his health situation. His effortless delivery, lack of reliance on velocity, and consistent 150 inning performances through his age 21 season are all great signs for a young pitcher. You could not ask for more in a pitcher. A++

Ceiling: Clippard has a flaw. Thanks to his average fastball, Clippard is prone to giving up the home run. He's no Eric Milton, but Clippard will probably allow 25-30 home runs every season in the major leagues. His home ballparks have been big and traditionally helped him a lot in this regard, but he is going to have a little trouble remaining elite in the majors. Luckily, his great control has helped to dull the damage from the bombs. It will keep him from winning Cy Young Awards, but Clippard can certainly be a reliable starter. His ability to throw strikes and eat innings will make him a very useful pitcher in the major leagues. His ERA will over between 3.70-4.20 most of the time.

Reaching Ceiling: Barring some freak injury, Clippard is pretty much there. He will try an tackle advanced hitters at AAA, but they should not prove to be much of an obstacle.

Comparison: Dan Haren. Haren has a little more of a fastball, but Clippard's breaking stuff is much better than Haren's.

My Take: I like Clippard. I think that any pitcher who has 220+ inning potential is an incredible value to his team. As Michael Kay likes to point out every inning, good pitchers throw strikes and change speeds. His fastball may be a little lacking, but control is significantly more important. Even I recognize that the fastball keeps Clippard's ceiling down (He doesn't have the magic that Kennedy or Mussina or someone like that seems to), I rated him #4 due to the impressive health record. An injury-free pitching prospect is as rare as a good interview from a hockey player, and Clippard hasn't even raised an eyebrow from any team trainer yet. He has moved passed the point in is career where pitchers generally fall to the needle. He has grown up in Phil Hughes' shadow, but Clippard should not go unnoticed.

Prospect Profile: Dellin Betances (#5)

2006-12-29T21:22:00.000-08:00

Age: 18
Height: 6'7"-6'9" (Depending on who you ask)
Weight: 185-215 (Again, depending on who you ask)
Drafted: 8th Round in 2006 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Betances is 18 years old. He is a big guy. He has yet to put a lot of muscle on his frame. He throws a 93-97 mph fastball, hitting 98, with nasty movement on it. He throws it with command and consistent mechanics. His fastball can do nothing but improve. Betances entered camp a raw talent, throwing 3-4 mph slower and with a mechanical delivery all over the place. The Yankees took him in and almost immediately corrected his flaws, resulting in a beautiful product.

Curveball: Betances throws a knuckle curve. He entered camp with a slight feel for it, but it was not much of a weapon. As would be a theme for Betances, this would change almost immediately. In less than two months, Betances transformed a pitch which he had little feel for in to a true plus pitch. His curveball is a strikeout weapon that sits in the low 80s.

Changeup: Yet again, Betances entered camp without much of a changeup. In fact, he entered camp barely knowing how to throw one. At least he had some experience with a curveball. With a little instruction, Betances was almost instantly able to throw a plus changeup, which compliments his fastball perfectly. He does not yet use it as a strikeout pitch, but that could change in the future.

Command: Betances entered camp with the typical "tall man syndrom", meaning that he had difficult repeating his delivery. That lasted about a week. To compare, it took Randy Johnson the better part of a half decade to do the same. That said, Betances is not 6'10". People tend to overestimate height, and I would say that Betances is more likely closer to 6'7" than 6'9". After that week of adjustment, Betances never let up. He was dominant.

Performance: Betances has a short pedigree in professional baseball. After signing, he tossed 23.1 innings (the Yankees limited his workload, as they do with a lot of 18 year olds), striking out 27, walking 7, and allowing just 3 earned runs (1.16 ERA). Betances did this following a 40+ inning high school performance where he struck out over 100. Why did he fall to us in the 8th round? Well, there are a few reasons. First off, no one thought that he would sign. Second, he pretty much said "If I am going to sign, it is only going to be with the Yankees". Third, he was not a three pitch pitcher prior to attending the Yankee camp. He tossed a live fastball and had little in terms of secondary pitches. This is a steal.

2007 Outlook: Dellin will certainly head to Charleston, where he will join a very talented rotation. The Yankee goal in 2007 will likely to simply keep Betances healthy, marginally effective, and adjusted to everyday baseball. He has no lingering issues with injury to worry about, but at such a young age who knows what health problems he may encounter in the future. He could very well take the Phil Hughes path, moving up to Tampa after some limited time in Charleston. If he manages to pitch 120+ innings, we Yankee fans should be very optimistic about his future. If he dominates Charleston, we may have another top-flight prospect on our hands.

Health: Incomplete. He is too young to determine anything about his health, although he has no immediately apparent health issues.

Ceiling: Betances has no ceiling. He is that good. If he can continue to stay mechanically clean and throw three plus pitches, he will be a success in this league. He is so young that he should be considered years ahead of schedule. I have not seen Betances pitch, but after reading a lot about him something struck me. He knows how to adjust. He quickly learned pitches, he quickly learned how to fix his mechanics, and he quickly learned how to attack hitters in professional baseball. Who does this remind me of? Phil Hughes.

Reaching Ceiling: He is so young that he will have dozens of opportunities to fail. Nothing can really be said about this right now.

Comparison: Can I say Phil Hughes? I guess I cannot. Besides a few inches and a few ticks of velocity, the two prospects seem to be mirror images of each other. Since I cannot say Phil Hughes, I am going to compare Betances to a healthy Mark Prior.

My take: I originally had Betances rated much lower, for the same reason that I rated Montero lower. But I stepped back and reflected on my choice. Betances is very young and very inexperienced. However, I cannot ignore how quickly his pitching intelligence kicked in and he adjusted his game. Some players just have it. They just know how to play. It is natural for them. Betances seems to be a natural. I am going to cautiously predict that Betances will have a Hughes-like rise to power, becoming a top-5 pitching prospect in this league in the next few years. Yankee fans should be very excited about him. His height and velocity give him an advantage over a guy like Hughes. Cross your fingers that he stays healthy.

Prospect Profile: Humberto Sanchez (#6)

2006-12-29T21:20:00.000-08:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 230
Drafted: Draft and Followed 31st Round out of Junior College (Originally from the Bronx)
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Sanchez has some of the best stuff in the minor leagues, on par with top prospects like Giovany Gonzalez, Chris Volstad, Matt Garza, and Nick Adenhart, although still a step below Homer Baily, Phil Hughes, and Jeremy Sowers. He throws an incredibly heavy 92-95 mph fastball. This heavy fastball will break bats, miss bats, and pound the ball in to the ground. He backs it up with an above average curveball and average changeup. Brian Cashman believes that Nardi Contreras can the changeup into an above average pitch and the curveball in to a plus pitch. He uses his height to his advantage, especially when throwing his curveball.

Command: Humberto has been inconsistent with command. He has the ability to pump his velocity up to 96 when he wants to, but this usually results in Sanchez becoming very wild. He is much more effective when sitting in the 93-94 mph range, where he can pound the bottom of the zone. When he learns to calm down and not overthrow, he is going to become an elite pitcher. His walk rate has improved every year since 2003.

Outlook: Sanchez has struggled with health problems in the past. He suffered from a number of nagging injuries in 2004 and 2005 which resulting in him missing time, including a sore elbow, knee surgery, and an oblique strain. However, he put it all together in 2006, pitching 123 innings between AA and AAA (his innings were limited because of past elbow problems) of 2.63 ERA ball. He struck out 129 and walked 47. He is considered major league ready, although the Yankees plan on sticking him in AAA for awhile to work on his changeup. Despite the injuries and the slow development of his 3rd pitch, the Tigers stubbornly refused to move him to the bullpen. He has the ability to be an elite closer in this league, but he could also be a top starter. If Nardi Contreras can indeed improve his two secondary pitches, and he stays healthy, look for Sanchez to be something very special. The overall pitching depth of the Yankees at AAA will enable them to take it slow with him. Sanchez would have been rated higher, but his health issues concern me.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health C-, Comparison: I've heard Roberto Hernandez, but I am still confident that Sanchez can remain a starter.

Prospect Profile: James Brent Cox (#7)

2006-12-29T21:18:00.000-08:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: Second Round in 2005 out of the University of Texas
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: J.B. Cox is not going to blow his fastball by anybody. He throws a 2-seamer at about 91-92 mph from a 3/4 arm slot. Previously, Cox had proven to throw a very durable near-sidearm fastball, but the Yankees decided to change this. He was throwing 86-89 when they drafted him, in part due to fatigue after throwing so many college innings. The new arm slot vastly improves his breaking stuff, and retains the movement on his fastball. His delivery is still deceptive, and very repeatable. He controls his fastball very well, throwing strikes with ease. The sink on his fastball has been compared to Derek Lowe's.

Slider: Cox has a plus slider, on par with T.J. Beam's. He throws it at about 85 mph, with excellent control. It breaks hard and in to left handed batters, getting him a decent amount of swings and misses. He is by no means a strikeout pitcher, but his slider is certainly a strikeout weapon. He doesn't use the pitch to get strikes, but it certainly looks like a strike when he is throwing it. The weird arm slot that he throws from makes it even more deceptive.

Changeup: Cox entered 2006 with a feel for a changeup, but it wasn't good enough to be thrown in a pressure situation. That changed. He worked very hard, turning it in to a major league quality pitch. It isn't anything special, but it gives the hitters something softer to think about. He will continue to work on it coming in to 2007, and the Yankees believe that he can make the changeup a near plus pitch.

Command: Cox has absolutely stellar command, which is easily his biggest asset. He does not get himself into trouble by walking people. He does not leave balls over the middle of the plate, resulting in an astronomically low 6 career home runs allowed in 290.1 innings between college and the minor leagues. Cox has pitched in 13 CWS games, handling the pressure as well if not better than fellow-Texan Huston Street.

Performance: Cox put together three excellent years in the NCAA's storied University of Texas, pitching 185.2 innings, striking out 190, walking 53, and posting a 2.03 ERA. He got the final out of their 2005 Championship before signing with the Yankees. He has one of best pedigrees for a college closer in the short history of drafted college closers. He doesn't throw as hard as most power relievers, but he has certainly showed up on the mound. Between High A Tampa and AA Trenton, Cox has pitched 104.2 innings, striking out 87 while walking just 29. He has allowed only 23 earned runs during that time for an ERA of 1.98.

2007 Outlook: On a lot of teams, Cox would already be in the major league bullpen and perhaps a major league closer. However, the Yankees refused to rush Cox, seeing Joe Devine on the Braves and Craig Hansen on the Red Sox crash and burn after being rushed from high end college programs to pressure situations in the show. With a suddenly loaded Yankee bullpen, Cox will start 2007 in Scranton, which will give him time to work on his changeup. He will likely be second or third on the Yankee relief depth charts, behind Chris Britton (if he gets optioned down) and T.J. Beam (who is starting to get old). There is no doubt in my mind that Cox could perform better than Kyle Farnsworth or Scott Proctor next year if sent immediately to the Yankees.

Health: If there is one reason to be concerned about Cox, this is it. He pitched well over 100 innings in 2005 between the college season, the CWS, and Tampa. The Yankees slowed it down a bit this year, giving him 77 innings before shipping him off to Team USA. He pitched well there, but went down with an elbow injury in the final days of play. He was supposed to go to Arizona, but was pulled from the team roster. No Yankee official seems to be making a big deal about it though. Hopefully they are not trying to mask a bigger problem.

Ceiling: There is debate as to whether or not Cox can be a big league closer. His fastball is below average for an ace reliever. Most closers (even Mariano) sport a 95+ mph fastball to blow by people. I think that Cox has the ability to close, but will not fool anybody to thinking that Mariano had yet to retire. In terms of quality, I would compare him to John Wetteland. Wetteland was a decent closer, but not a great one. Think about some of Tom Gordon's good years, or one of Shield's better years. The ability to eat innings should not be underrated here. Cox could be one of the average closers in this league or one of the better setup men.

Reaching his Ceiling: He is basically major league ready right now. I would say that there is an 80% chance that Cox steps in and posts a sub 3.50 ERA right away. He has as much experience as we could possibly hope for, and should feed off the pressure of the big leagues. Health is the only concern. 90% Chance of Reaching the Majors.

Comparison: Scot Shields. If Cox successfully turns his changeup into an above average pitch, he will resemble Shields even moreso. Shields relies on his sinking fastball to force ground balls and low pitch counts. Shields will probably strike more people out, but I think that Cox will be a better reliever thanks to the plus slider. He has better minor league numbers than Shields and an excellent college track record.

My Take: Cox wouldn't be #7 if he wasn't so far along. He is going to be at least a good major league reliever very soon, and could very well be a great one. His ability to get left handed batters out just as well as right handed ones thanks to the hard slider coming in will make him better than a middle reliever. He is such a certain product that there is not much more to say about him. Hopefully this mysterious elbow injury isn't serious, and I doubt that it is. Scranton is going to be a fun team to watch.

Prospect Profile: Ian Kennedy (#8)

2006-12-29T20:40:00.000-08:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 185
Drafted: 1st Round in 2006 out of USC
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Fastball: Kennedy throws a 4 seamer around 88-92 mph, although it dipped in velocity during his final year at USC. He is learning a 2 seamer down in Hawaii, which may be to blame for most of his struggles there (more on this later). "But EJ, why did we waste a 1st round pick on a guy who throws 90?". Johnny, it is pretty simple. Kennedy locates his fastball with extreme poise, ala Mike Mussina.

Changeup: Kennedy has a plus changeup, which he uses with ruthless efficiency. The changeup is essential to Kennedy's approach on the mound. He uses it to out smart the batter, with a lot of success. It is one of three pitches that he will often use to finish off a batter.

Slider: Kennedy sports an above average slider, sitting in the mid 80s. He uses it to make his changeup look a little lighter, forcing the hitter to account for harder breaking stuff. He is one of the rare pitchers who can reliably throw their slider for strikes. When it misses, it misses in the dirt, not in the zone.

Curveball: He also sports an above average curveball, which he can again use with pinpoint accuracy. The curveball gives Kennedy a third strikeout pitch, making him incredibly deadly in that department (and it showed in college, which I will get to soon).

Command: As previously mentioned, Kennedy's command is excellent. He is a very smart pitcher who learns how to get each individual batter out. He has a strategic mind not unlike that of Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina. He handles pressure extremely well. In terms of "polish", the Yankees believe that Kennedy is already far ahead of most AA prospects.

Performance: Ian Kennedy put up two of the more dominant seasons in NCAA history. In 2004 and 2005, Kennedy pitched a combined 209.2 innings. He posted a 2.70 ERA between the two years, striking out 278 and walking just 69. for a 19 and 20 year old just entering college, these numbers were monumental. He had a reputation as the best pitcher in USC history - a group which includes Randy Johnson and Mark Prior. USC also happens to face the highest level of competition in the NCAA. What happened? Kennedy had a poor - by his standards - Junior year. He posted a 3.90 ERA in 101.2 innings, striking out 102 and walking 36. He did not allow any more home runs than his freshman year, give up significantly more his, or walk a ton of batters.

2007 Outlook: Unfortunately, Kennedy signed late. He only got 2.2 innings in at Staten Island before the playoffs started. Any thought of Kennedy starting in Trenton was immediately dismissed. He will start in Tampa, where he hopefully should do very well. Kennedy went to Hawaii, pitching 30.1 innings, striking out 45, walking 11, and posting a 4.56 ERA. He allowed 27 hits. A lot of Kennedy's struggles may be due to his attempt to develop a 2 seam fastball. In addition, almost half of Kennedy's earned runs came in one game, where he gave up 8 runs. Other than that game, Kennedy had an ERA of 2.48. Kennedy still struck out over 13 per 9. Still, he will go to Tampa.

Health: A lot of speculation about Kennedy's significantly worse 2006 season has been speculation about health. This is just speculation, although it may have merit. Rumors are that his velocity dropped, although no one can specifically say that it did. I am skeptical. Kennedy pitched a lot of innings in college without arm problems. He has a pretty good health record. B.

Ceiling: Kennedy's fastball is a knock against him. If you read BA, you would think that Kennedy would be lucky to get out of AAA. I cannot disagree more. I strongly believe that Ian Kennedy is going to be a major steal in this draft. A steal in the first round? Yes. Absolutely. His fastball is average. I understand that. However, Kennedy has a ton of Maddux/Mussina in him. Hell, he even does Mussina's stretch move. You cannot ignore those college numbers. Those are crazy dominant strikeouts, walks, and ERAs. I believe that Kennedy can put up a lot of typical Mussina years - 3.40 ERA, 220 innings, 200 strikeouts, 40 walks. That doesn't look like "#4 Starter" that BA seems to have doomed Kennedy to.

Reaching his ceiling: It will be up to Kennedy to prove that his 2006 season in college and Hawaii was a fluke. I believe that he can do it. Intelligence is underrated in baseball, and Kennedy appears to have the ability to outsmart his opposition. The Yankees can also afford to take their time with Kennedy and let him learn at his pace. Maybe he'll learn a gyroball or something.

Comparison: Mike Mussina, no doubt. Like I said, he resembles Mussina in almost every way. Strikeouts. No walks. Average fastball. Lots of secondary pitches. The same strange stretch move. This is the easiest comparison on this list.

My Take: Don't write Kennedy off. If George Kontos is an example where old school scouts are dead-on toward a prospect, Ian Kennedy will be an example where the stat-heads got it right. Sometimes you cannot explain a pitcher's performance by the plus marks next to his pitches or the radar gun readings. Sometimes something is just there - and Kennedy has that something. In the words of Charles Barkley - I may be wrong, but I doubt it.

Prospect Profile: Jesus Montero (#9)

2006-12-29T20:39:00.000-08:00

Age: 16
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
Drafted: Signed out of Venezuela in 2006 for 2 million dollars
Position: Catcher (for now)
Bats: Right

Batting: Jesus Montero is 16 years old. Jesus Montero's bat is now. His bat is among the best to come out of Latin America in history. He has 80 power on a 20-80 scale, which means he has the potential to hit 40+ home runs at the major league level. He has an advanced approach at the plate, meaning that he knows how to select his pitch. We are unsure about his strikeout and walk potential due to his lack of professional experience to this point. It is very difficult to judge too much about Montero at this stage in his development. The Yankees are already adjusting his swing to allow him to hit for power to all fields, which is something usually reserved for prospects much older than Montero.

Defense: Montero is a catcher. We know that. He probably will not remain a catcher. Montero has a few things going against him. First off, he is a big guy. At 16 years old, he will probably be larger than 6'3" 220 lbs by the time he reaches the majors. Catchers simply cannot survive at 240+ lbs. Second, he is no Joe Mauer. His defensive abilities are extremely raw and may or may not develop in to a good defensive catcher, but right now he doesn't show a lot of finesse behind the plate. The Yankees plan to keep him at catcher now, but Montero could end up a 1st baseman when all is said and done. If he does remain a catcher, his offense will be magnified tenfold.

Performance: Montero has not played any serious professional ball so far. He did hit a home run in his first professional game though.

2007 Outlook: There are two options for Montero. He could go to Charleston as a 17 year old, or he could be sent to the Gulf Coast League. I believe that Montero will not end up in Charleston. He is still learning English and the catching position, two traits that you do not want handling prize prospects such as McAllister and Betances. Montero is so incredibly young that rushing him could have poor effects. He will probably be sent to extended spring training and the GCL Yankees, where his bat will dominate. All of this said, if the Yankees decided to move him away from the catcher position, he will almost certainly be sent to Charleston. It seems a little early to do that though. When you hear things in interviews like "He hits like a big leaguer right now", you do expect prospects to be a little more rushed than expected.

Health: Montero is so young that nothing substantive can be said about his health. Incomplete.

Ceiling: The sky is the limit for Montero (a phrase that will certainly come up a lot with the next few propsects). I don't care what position he plays, because his bat has enough power to play him anywhere. A+.

Reaching his ceiling: He is so damn young that again nothing substantive can be said about it, except that power is traditionally the last tool to develop in a prospect. If he already has major league power, he is in good shape. Plate discipline will determine a lot for Montero. 20% Chance of reaching the majors.

Comparison: Again, it is way to early to compare him to anyone. He certainly has the ability to match or beat Javy Lopez's 2003 or some of Posada's best years.

My take: Some people would rate Montero a bit higher. I certainly agree with them that his ceiling is unlimited, but I cannot rate a 16 year old who never has played in the minor leagues higher than some of the guys on this list. He could very well be the #1 prospect in the Yankee system a year from now. He probably has more potential than even Tabata.

Prospect Profile: Eric Duncan (#10)

2006-12-29T20:37:00.000-08:00

Age: 21 (22 in December)
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 1st round out of High School in 2003
Position: 3rd/1st
Throws: Right
Bats: Left

Tools: Eric Duncan is not going to make anybody mistake him for a triathelete. On the other hand, he is no Jason Giambi. His tool is his bat. From the start, Eric Duncan was looked on by scouts as a big time power hitter. This is a mischaracterization of Duncan. Eric Duncan will never be a 30+ home run guy. He simply does not have the swing for it. He tends to be very uncomfortable pulling balls, prefering to drive pitches in to left center field. He is one of the best in the minors at doing so. His eye at the plate is extremely selective, resulting in comparisons to Chipper Jones. His defense at 3rd was average at it's absolute best, although he has proven to be a passable 1st baseman.

Performance: The Yankees have attempted to change this, adjusting his swing to be more pull happy. The result? Lines of .235/.326/.408 as a 20 year old at AA and .209/.279/.255 as a 21 year old in AAA. He recovered in Trenton this year, hitting .248/.355/.485. In between the years, he earned the AFL MVP honors after posting a .362/.423/.734 line. Duncan has a weird power stroke that will produce lots of doubles and a decent amount of homers. The comparison is Jason Giambi is way off in this regard, as Duncan is anything but a dead-pull hitter. He has had a major strikeout problem in the high minors, punching out 136 times in 126 games in 2005 and 24 times in 31 games in AAA in 2006. The strikeouts did improve after being sent back to AA, striking out only 38 times in 57 games (equal to 108 in a 162 game season).

Outlook: I am mixed on my opinion of Duncan's future. He spent most of 2006 experiencing bad back problems, almost resulting in surgery. Those problems have again resurfaced in the AFL this year. Back problems tend to be chronic and very debilitating. If healthy, there is no doubt in my mind that Duncan will be an effective major league player. The strikeout level that he maintained in his second trip to AA is certainly low enough to maintain a decent major league batting average, and his isolated power at AA has been top of the line (.237 in 2006, Alex Rodriguez has a career .268 ISO). I love any player who can hit to all fields like Duncan can, and the plate discipline is a big plus. His minor league stats aren't great, but the Yankees have consistently rushed him from level to level. Just being in AAA at 21 this year was an accomplishment, even if he failed miserably. I believe that Duncan could blossom in to a .270/.370/.500 hitter in the majors.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health C-, Comparison: Erubiel Durazo

Prospect Profile: Austin Jackson (#11)

2006-12-29T20:34:00.000-08:00

Age: 19
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180 lbs
Drafted: 8th Round in 2005 out of High School (800,000 $ bonus)
Position: Centerfield
Bats: Right

Tools: According to Travis at Pending Pinstripes, the Yankees started scouting Jackson when he was 12. They clearly had interest in his athletic talent, and it showed. Jackson is an excellent athlete, but that is only hlaf the story. His speed is 60 on a 20-80 scale, or about equal to a Bobby Abreu. He is still learning how to steal bases but has already shown 40-50 base ability. The speed translate well to centerfield, where is one among many excellent Yankee defenders. He has the arm of an average left fielder. Jackson has a Derek Jeter-like swing to right field, producing surprising gap power. Austin is extremely patient at the plate for a 19 year old, although he struck out a ton in 2006.

Performance: At first glance, Jackson did not follow up his strong performance in 2005 when sent to Charleston in 2006. He hit to a .260/.340/.346 line with 151 strikeouts, 61 walks, 37 Sbs and 12 CS. The strikeouts were not the result of a long or loopy swing but rather Jackson taking too many pitches for strike 3. That said, he came in to the season as a 19 year old pure-athlete. It is very rare that an athlete of his caliber does not swing at everything - so the pitch-taking is encouraging. He will learn as he ages to get ahead in the count and drive hitter's pitches. Jackson certainly looks to have 80-walk potential written on him. In addition, he showed excellent raw power in Charleston, hitting 33 extra base hits. With his inside-out swing he probably won't hit a lot of home runs, but he will get his share of doubles and triples (especially with his speed).

Outlook: Jackson is my pick for a breakout prospect in 2007. Except for the strikeouts, he has done everything right. If he could cut those strikeouts down considerably he looks to be a .290/.380/.450 player who can steal you 40-50 bases every year. He is still a long way off, but the Yankees may push him to Tampa next year. He will join teammates Battle, Corona, Vechionacci, and others there. He is at a stage where the average high school prospect would still be trying to figure out how to tie his shoes in professional ball, so it is easy to underrate his performance so far. He is ahead of where Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter, similar in terms of talent, were at this age.

Grades: Ceiling A-, Health B, Comparison: Kenny Lofton

Prospect Profile: Jeff Marquez (#12)

2006-12-29T20:33:00.000-08:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 175
Drafted: Supplemental 1st Round in 2004 out of Sacramento College
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Jeff Marquez has a strong sinking fastball that he throws around 92-93 mph, topping out a few ticks higher. He gets a ton of groundballs with it. He could add a few mph as he puts some muscle on his body. Marquez's fastball is good, but his real strength comes with his plus changeup, probably the best in the Yankee system. He throws it from the exact same arm slot as his fastball, but at 76 mph. He also throws a very good curveball at around the same velocity.

Command: Marquez commands his fastball and changeup extremely well. He does not rely on the strikeout, although he certainly does get his fair share (he has a career K/9 of 7.48 in the minors). Instead, he causes hitters to pound the ball in to the ground like Brandon Webb. He does not command his curveball nearly as well, although it is still a good pitch. The curveball (which Nardi Contreras seems to be teaching to every Yankee starter) has a lot of break to it, but generally breaks into the dirt. Marquez has only been throwing it for a season and a half, so it certainly could improve. He shows a remarkable ability to prevent home runs, allowing only 11 home runs in over 300 innings.

Outlook: Marquez battled injuries throughout 2006, but did not get run off his course. He pitched just under 100 innings in 2006, posting a 3.58 ERA, 90 strikeouts and 30 walks in Tampa. This is after throwing 139 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Charleston with 107 strikeouts and 61 walks. His control has improved considerably since in that small time, in part thanks to the development of his curveball. Marquez is not having a good time in the Hawaiian league right now, but he is still likely to head to AA Trenton next season. Marquez will be an effective major league player for a couple of reasons. He strikes people out, forces them to pound balls into the ground, rarely walks people, and does not allow a lot of home runs. The injuries that he missed time with were just a couple of muscle strains. I have a lot of faith in guys who change speeds as well as Marquez does. He was a first round pick for a reason. He may be converted to a reliever due to a surplus of Yankee starters, but I doubt it.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health B, Comparison: Ramiro Mendoza

Prospect Profile: Brett Gardner (#13)

2006-12-29T20:32:00.000-08:00

Age: 23
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 180
Drafted: 3rd round in 2005 out of the College of Charleston
Position: Centerfield
Bats: Left

Tools: Speed. Speed. More Speed. Lots of Speed. He has it. He is Willie Mays Hays. Brett Gardner has 80 speed on a 20-80 scale, and he uses it. He has stolen 77 bases in 191 career minor league games. Of course, the minors are filled with players with 80 speed who could never be decent major league players (Justin Christian, Gardner's teammate, is a prime example). Gardner combines his speed with outstanding plate discipline. He looks to have the ability to put together 80+ walk seasons. He likes to hit a lot of weak slappy line drives, which rarely translate in to extra base hits. For this reason, his ceiling is limited. His speed and excellent sense in the outfield translate to an outstanding defensive game, among the best in the Yankee farm system. His arm is average, although fairly accurate.

Performance: A former walk on at Charleston, Gardner has been constantly progressing as he moves up the minor league ladder. He was one of the many stars in Staten Island last year. This year, he started at Tampa and earned his promotion to AA with a .323/.433/.418 line and 30 stolen bases in 63 games. His performance at Trenton was not excellent, but it did show some good signs with a .272/.352/.318 line. Although his power dissolved, Gardner continued to show a special ability to reach base. Gardner then went to the AFL, where he has stumbled since starting off incredibly hot. Still, he has managed to put up a .252/.414/.359 line with 6 stolen bases in 26 games.

Outlook: Garder will be a major league player in some context. His ability to at least hit for doubles into the gap and his ability to maintain a respectable batting average will determine the role that he plays. In both Trenton and Arizona, he has shown a worrying tendency to strike out. In 26 games in Arizona, he has struck out 21 times (walking 27 times by the way). In 118 games in 2006 between Tampa and Trenton, he struck out 90 times while walking 70 times. A power hitter can afford to strike out, but a speedster like Gardner needs balls in play in order to reach base. Gardner has Juan Pierre type tools, with a little bit more on the plate discipline side of things than Pierre does. He plays better defense than Pierre. But the reason that Pierre was able to be a marginally good major league player for a couple of years was his ability to not strike out. By not striking out a lot, Pierre was able to hit .320+. Gardner will need to hit .300+ to allow his plate discipline to take over and be an effective hitter despite the lack of power. He can't strike out 110+ times a year and do that.

Grades: Ceiling B-, Health A, Comparison: Dave Roberts

Prospect Profile: T.J. Beam (#14)

2006-12-29T20:29:00.000-08:00

Age: 26
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 215
Drafted: 10th round in 2003 out of U Mississippi
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: T.J. Beam did not have the stuff to remain a starter, as is common with many excellent relief pitchers. He has an excellent fastball, which clocks in at 93-95 mph, touching as high as 97 on the gun. He uses his lanky body to full effective, producing a deceptive top-down movement on his fastball. He'll see a lot of hitters swing and miss on balls in the dirt as a result. He complements it with an even better slider, at about 83-84 mph. He can place it anywhere he wants, almost as if he was locating a good fastball. Beam has experiemented with a slow looping curveball, changeup, and cutter in the past but none developed into a decent pitch.

Command: His true asset as a reliever is his ability to command that slider. He can place it anywhere he wants, almost as if he was locating a good fastball. He is not slouch with the fastball either, possessing command among the best in the Yankee system. When he walks somebody, he usually means to. Despite struggles early in his career, he posses a 3.54 career K/BB ratio and a 2.59 ERA.

Outlook: T.J. Beam struggled at first in the majors. This can be expected, considering that he entered the 2005 season in Low A Charleston. Beam has never been less than excellent at every step of the minors since converting to the bullpen. He will be an excellent major league reliever, and could put up some stellar seasons. I have a lot of faith in Beam, and the Yankees clearly do too. After not pitching an inning over Tampa, they put him on the 40-man prior to last season. He could prove to be a workhorse too, as he pitched over 90 innings last season. He will return to the Columbus bullpen, and should be the first to be called up to the major leagues. He'll be 27 in August, so time is certainly a concern. He may be the oldest prospect on this list, but do not read too much in to that. He was drafted after four years in college at 23 years old and only converted to a reliever around his 25th birthday.

Grades: Ceiling B, Health A, Comparison: Steve Karsay

Prospect Profile: Steve White (#15)

2006-12-29T20:26:00.000-08:00

Age: 24
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 4th round in 2003 out of Baylor University
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: The big righty draws most of his strength from his two fastballs. He uses his long legs to pump his fastball up to the mid 90s. He is capable of throwing 95-97, but easily loses his command if he attempts to. The Yankees have him settling down at the 93-94 mph range, staying away from the meat of the plate. When not overthrowing, his fastball is a strength. He throws an above average major league slurvy curveball at 76-80 mph. He compliments this with a near-plus changeup at about 80 mph. PP.com points out that since he isn't throwing at full effort, he can stay effective deep in to games.

Command: If White is going to succeed, it will not be for lack of stuff. He certainly has the tools to compete as a good major league starter. That said, White's head is his greatest enemy. He has had trouble adjusting to higher levels, struggling both when first exposed to AA and AAA hitters. The Yankees believe that this is due to White trying and failing to throw the ball harder when he gets in to jams. He gets very nervous out on the mound. His control is not a strongpoint, but does improve considerably when he calms down. When focused, he has a reputation of a tactical baseball mind.

Outlook: White has a few things going for him. He is just 24 years old. His health record is exceptional (he was hurt by nagging non-arm related injuries such as an oblique strain in 2005, but pitched 175.1 innings in 2006), and his low-stress approach to pitching bodes well to his potential as a starting pitcher. The Yankees have a lot of faith in White, calling him up along with Hughes, Cox, and Clippard to sit in during the later regular season. White is however in danger of suffering from "Sean Henn syndrom" if he struggles at first in the major leagues. Joe Torre does not like to give rookie pitchers a second chance. Steve White may end up being trade bait because of this.

Grades: Ceiling B-, Health B+, Comparison: Steve Trachsel throwing a little harder.

Prospect Profile: Marcos Vechionacci (#16)

2006-12-29T20:24:00.000-08:00

Age: 20 (just turned)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 170 lbs
Drafted: Signed out of Venezuela in 2002
Position: 3rd base (With experience at 2nd and SS)
Hits: Switch
Throws: Right

Tools: Vechionacci is a legit 6-tool player. He has a ton of plate discipline and speed, and the Yankees project power to develop out of his swing. His ability to hit for average is questionable, as he has had some low batting averages in recent years, but many scouts believe that this is just a result of Nacci playing at an age far below his league. His real tools though fall on the other side of the ball. Vechionacci used to be a catcher, but was quickly converted to the infield. He tried shortstop and 2nd base, but eventually settled in at 3rd base. His defensive ability at 3rd base is nearly unrivaled, impressing even Joe Torre in spring training last season. He has Rolen/Chavez potential there.

Performance: Vechinacci has had mixed results in his three season minor league career. He was excellent as a 17 year old in 2004, hitting .319/.387/.454 between Staten Island and the Gulf Coast league (which a brief appearance in Tampa). He did not hit well in Charleston the following year, but displayed ISO and IsoOBP numbers are were very encouraging. Despite the low batting averages by Vechinacci, the Yankees were forced to rush him to Tampa in 2006, mostly because of the incredible amount of infield talent in Charleston. Along with a few other young Latino players, Nacci flopped. He was sent back to Charleston, where he improved upon his already decent ISO and IsoOBP numbers while maintaining a low batting average. He finished 2006 with a .255/.352/.386 line. His defense improved further.

Outlook: While a long way off, the results are encouraging for a prospect like Nacci. 20 may sound old, but remember that most college prospects are 22 or 23 by the time they high High A ball. Marcos will be given a second shot at Tampa in 2007, where he will have a chance to make a difference on a very good team. He has the tools, talent, and track record to make a major break out next season. Raw power and plate discipline are incredibly important for a toolsy prospect like Vechionacci. The Yankees settled him in at 3rd not because it was where he would be the most valued defender (he was excellent at short and 2nd as well), but because they believe he has the bat to hold down the offense-centered position.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B, Comparison: Eric Chavez without the lefty problems.

Prospect Profile: Kevin Whelan (#17)

2006-12-29T20:22:00.000-08:00

Age: 22
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 200
Drafted: 4th round in 2005 by Detroit out of Texas A&M
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Whelan was converted from catcher for two reasons. First, he couldn't hit. Second, he throws hard. Whelan sits at 92-95 mph, but with more experience and innings he could crank it up even harder. He very quickly developed a plus splitter, which he uses as his strikeout pitch. He was the top relief pitcher in the Cape Code league in 2004, less than a year after converting. His delivery is still a little messy, as can be expected. He has a career K/9 in college of 11.57 and 12.68 in professonal ball.

Command: As can be expected, Whelan is wild. He walked over 5 per 9 innings in college, and 4.26 per 9 in the minor leagues. Despite all of this, Whelan boasts a 2.97 K/BB ratio. As his control improves, Whelan will become a serious weapon. He has front line closer stuff if he can control it. Despite the poor command, Whelan clearly is a step ahead of the low minor leagues. He has allowed 4.49 hits per 9 innings in his career.

Outlook: The Yankees will likely push Whelan to Trenton, where he could serve as the team's closer. Whelan's developing arm will be pushed harder, probably to the tune of 75+ innings. The Tigers were careful with his innings last season, limiting him to just 54. Whelan is just 22 years old and will need at least two full seasons in the minors to learn how to pitch. The Yankees have no reason to rush him with J.B. Cox and T.J. Beam waiting in the wings to take spots on the major league roster.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health B Comparison: Too early to tell. Give him time.

Prospect Profile: Jeff Karstens (#18)

2006-12-29T20:20:00.000-08:00

Age: 24
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 170
Drafted: 19th Round in 2003 out of Texas Tech.
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Karstens throws an average fastball at 90-91 mph. He has a decent slider, which is one of the better in the Yankee system. It used to be his out pitch. He throws a curveball in the mid 70s, but he only really throws it when behind in the counting and needing a strike. His main out pitch has become an above average 78 mph changeup, which he uses to get a significant amount of weak fly balls and pop ups. He can throw a slightly slower heavy fastball, but rarely ever uses that pitch.

Command: Karstens is a major league prospect not because he has one particularly good pitch or a good fastball, but because he can consistently throw all four pitches for strikes. He locates his curveball especially well. Karstens functions well when he is able to keep his pitch count down and force contact on batters. He gets tired easily into higher pitch counts and his control suffers.

Outlook: Karstens is rated so high purely because he is such a fair bet. His minor league record indicates that Karstens is incredibly average. Good control. Average velocity. Four average pitches. Average strikeouts. Karstens just uses his skill to pitch good fundamental baseball. He changes speeds and throws strikes. If he continues to attack hitters and throw the right pitch at the right time he will have a very long replacement level major league career. His future might be in a Ramiro Mendoza role, thanks to his lack of ability to sustain high pitch counts. His health record is as good as it can get.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health A, Comparison: Rodrigo Lopez

Prospect Profile: Angel Reyes (#19)

2006-12-29T20:18:00.000-08:00

Age: 19
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 170 lbs
Signed: International Free Agent in 2004 out of the D.R.
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Left

Stuff: Reyes is the only lefty pitcher who is a serious prospect in the Yankee system. He is the only lefty with a plus fastball (93-95 mph). He has a plus curveball and has just started to learn a changeup. His changeup is about 12-13 mph slower than his fastball with his curveball a few ticks slower than that. His fastball has deception and electric movement. Reyes is very raw, but his velocity and curveball are advanced well beyond his young age.

Control: Reyes came into the GCL season with a reptuation of wildness. As is a common theme with such a young player, he had trouble repeating his mechanics coming into this short season, but got straightened out and posted decent walk numbers. He got to show his stuff against more advanced competition this year after the GCL season ended with Staten Island. He pitched 46.2 innings with the GCL Yankees, striking out 45 while posting an ERA of 1.35. He followed this dominating performance up with an equally dominating 16 strikeouts in 17 innings of 1.54 ERA ball. He walked just 20 the whole time. This dominating performance follows two excellent years in the DSL as a 17 and 18 year old. Reyes could not have been better in his first season of American baseball.

Outlook: Reyes, the only serious lefty prospect in the Yankee system, may have some troubles remaining as a starter. His 3 pitch repetoire is excellent, but his small frame could impede his durability and ability to go deep into games. The bullpen is a common place for flame throwing small pitchers. That said, it would not be unprecedented for Reyes to remain a starter. He has the stuff and poise to progress quickly throughout the Yankee minor league system. He will start in a deep Charleston rotation next season. He may be a leading candidate for promotion to Tampa if he pitches well (and if there are spots open in another crowded rotation).

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B, Comparison: Erik Bedard

Prospect Profile: George Kontos (#20)

2006-12-29T20:15:00.000-08:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
Drafted: 5th Round in 2006 out of Northwestern University
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: George Kontos has a nasty fastball. It tops out in the mid 90s, but he primarily throws it as a 2-seamer. Watching him on TV, I saw exactly why Kontos was picked in the 5th round despite a terrible college record. His stuff is just electric. He also throws a straigher 4-seamer, a decent change (it used to be about 84-85 mph, compared to a 94 mph fastball, but the Yankee coaches refined it and it's now in the 78-80 range). His best pitch is however his slider, and he gets a lot of swing and misses with it. It is probably the best or second best slider in the Yankee farm system. He has a curveball but doesn't use it too much.

Command: Kontos had a bad record of walking people in college. He walked 123 in 219.2 innings in three college years, including 53 in 95.1 this season. However, this was one case where the scouts were able to tell what statheads like myself could not. Scouts said that he did not have control problems; he simply was forced to nibble against aluminum bats. His mechanics were sound. As soon as he met wooden bats, Kontos excelled. The inside third of the plate opened to him and the strikes came like crazy. He pounded his slider to righties and located his fastball like a seasoned pro. In his 78 innings, Kontos only walked 19.

Outlook: I am a huge Kontos fan. He is probably my favorite prospect on this list. He has a first round slider and a great fastball to go along. His future is certainly going to be determined by the development of his changeup. Without a reliable third pitch, his future is in the bullpen. The Yankees seem confident however that Kontos will stay in the rotation (they are less confident in Tim Norton, who is primarily a fastball pitcher). If his changeup becomes an average or better pitch, look for a major steal from the 5th round pick. He has handled significant workloads between college and Staten Island (over 160 innings this season) and has a clean bill of health. I would not be surprised to see him pitch in Trenton at some time during 2007. I am a fan.

Grades: Ceiling B+, Health A-, Comparison: I really don't know who to compare Kontos to.

Prospect Profile: Zach McAllister (#21)

2006-12-29T20:13:00.000-08:00

Age: 18
Height: 6'5" (6" taller than two years ago)
Weight: 230 (60 lbs heavier than two years ago)
Drafted: 3rd Round in 2006 out of High School
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: McAllister is in the midst of a major change in pitching style. Due to rapid growth, he has become much more of a power pitcher than he used to be. He was signed throwing around 90, mostly throwing 2 seam fastballs and changeups. The heavy sinking action on his fastball was enough for him to get by. The Yankees, seeing his newfound power frame, decided to change his style immensely. They got him throwing a 4-seamer, adding a lot of velocity (it's hard to tell what he is throwing at now. Some reports have him as high as 93). He is still 18 years old and will certainly get stronger as he puts muscle on his big body. His change is average, although improving. His slider was a plus pitcher in High School, but we'll see if he replaces it with a curveball like Hughes did.

Command: A finessed pitching style has one advantage: the pitcher learns how to pitch instead of throw. McAllister has phenominal command of his fastball for his age, and is very aware of the batter when on the mound. His strategic approach could be a serious boon if he develops a power fastball. His pitching mind is years ahead of his peers. In this regard, he has been commonly compared to Phil Hughes (although Hughes has a much better fastball than McAllister, so don't read too much in to the comparison). He prefers to get the groundball over the strikeout.

Outlook: McAllister is incredibly young, so this one is tough to call. He should start the year in Charleston, and likely will stay there for the entire season. His first priority will be improving his curveball. His second priority will be adding muscle and velocity. I have a lot of faith in McAllister's ability to outsmart A ball hitters, so 2007 should be a good season for Zach. Guile alone will not beat AA and beyond hitters though, so his future will be determined less by success in the Sally league and more by improvements across the board on his all of his pitches. His head is the only plus tool he posses right now, although the potential for a plus fastball is certainly there. He was the only Yankee pitcher signed out of the 2006 draft from High School.

Grade: Ceiling B+, Health Incomplete [too young], Comparison: Freddy Garcia

Prospect Profile: Tim Battle (#26)

2006-12-29T20:11:00.000-08:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180 lbs
Drafted: 3rd round out of High School in 2003
Bats: Right

Tools: Battle is all about tools. He has the ability to hit for power, take walks, run like the wind, and throw a cannon. The downside? He strikes out... a lot. Battle illustrates the difference between great walk taking ability and great plate discipline. Battle knows how to take a pitch for a walk, but he does not know how to manipulate the count to drive a ball. Instead, he takes far too many pitches, gets into bad counts, and swings and misses for the strikeout. He has Mike Cameron-like tools. He just needs to learn how to use it.

Performance: The only reason that Battle is not higher up on this list is that he has consistently not performed at the A- level in three years. He came closest in 2005 when he put up a .259/.335/.455 line. His raw power and walking ability were offset by his 195 strikeouts in 134 games. He cut down on the Ks in 2006, but his raw patience and power suffered at the same time, and he still struck out 140 times in the same playing time. On defense however, he has blossomed. Battle was rated the best corner outfielder in organized baseball by minor league baseball.

Outlook: I am pessimistic about Battle. On the surface, his ability to make more contact is a big leap forward. Unfortantely, he lost his ability to drive the ball. Battle certainly has the ability to be a late bloomer, but I wouldn't count on it. He will probably start the season in Charleston, marking his 4th season below Tampa. He is no longer a young toolsy kid who has an excuse. At least his defense is excellent.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B-, Comparison: Mike Cameron

Prospect Profile: Tim Norton (#22)

2006-12-29T20:08:00.000-08:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 230 lbs
Drafted: 7th round in 2006 out of UConn.
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Norton sports a 92-95 mph fastball, thanks to his big power pitcher frame. He was drafted with a reputation of having very poor mechanics in his pitching motion. The Yankee staff in Staten Island cleaned that up, and he dominated. He throws a hard breaking slider, which is top-notch. He compliments it with an above average splitter. When pressed, he usually resorts to the slider over the splitter, which Yankee coaches are trying to reverse. He is also working on a changeup. He came out of college throwing a Slurve/Forkball combo instead of Slider/Splitter. The Yankee coaches changed this and the results showed.

Command: After cleaning up his mechanics, Norton took hold of the strike zone and never gave it up. He posted a team best 83 Ks in 72 innings, allowing just 12 walks. He posted the best ERA for a starting pitcher on the team at 2.60, to go along with two dominating playoff performances. He is very good at locating his fastball and slider, although his splitter needs work in that regard. His consistent, mature approach on the mound reflects his four years of college experience.

Outlook: I like Norton a lot, but I am a little skeptical of his potential. His college record is lackluster, with his only real stellar year being 2006. He never struck out too many batters, walked a lot, and didn't pitch a ton of innings. That said, Norton posted excellent peripheral numbers against wooden bats this summer. There has been a lot of speculation that he could end up in the bullpen, due to the lack of a third reliable pitch. With his pitchers frame, he could crank the radar gun up to 96-97 in shorter stints. I don't entirely disagree with this. The Yankees will see how he does in 2007 as a starter before making any decisions. Norton does not show all the signs of a short season bust that Zach Kroenke showed in 2005 (Kroenke had sub-par K/BB numbers and only pitched 39 innings. Norton had some of the best K/BB numbers in the league and pitched almost twice that).

Grades: Ceiling B, Health B+, Comparison: Brett Myers.

Prospect Profile: Colin Curtis (#23)

2006-12-29T20:07:00.000-08:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 204 lbs
Drafted: 4th Round in 2006 out of Arizona State University
Position: Centerfield
Bats: Left

Tools: Curtis is an excellent athlete. His range in centerfield is superb; he is probably the fourth fastest prospect in the organization behind Brett Gardner, Justin Christian, and Austin Jackson. He has an excellent approach to the strike zone (walking more times than he struck out in college). His power is very weak, although he's not Joey Gathright. He arm is strong for a centerfielder. His smooth swing and mature approach will allow him to hit for high averages in the major leagues.

Performance: Curtis played at Arizona State for three years, with a great deal of success. In 173 games, he hit .328/.426/.460 with 118 BBs, 107 Ks, 13 HR and 40 2bs. He stole 50 bases. He transitioned well to the pitching-dominated Staten Island Yankees, hitting .311/.361/.437 (including a 3 game stint with the GCL Yankees). He only stole 5 bases in 47 games. He cut his K rate down, striking out only 19 times (walking 13 times). His defense matched his reputation. He helped lead an excellent Staten Island team to the Ny-Penn League Championship.

Outlook: Curtis is basically the outfield version of Mitch Hilligoss, with a little more athleticism. He is about as safe a 4th round pick as they come. He will probably never develop much of a home run swing, but is solid in all other aspects of the game. He should move quickly, in a similar way that we saw Brett Gardner move this year. He will start the year in Tampa, and if he does well he will end it in Trenton. We could see him in New York in September of 2008. He lacks the ability to be a star, but his plate discipline and athleticism will ensure him to be at least a major league bench player some day.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health A-, Comparison: Dave Roberts.

Prospect Profile: Mitch Hilligoss (#24)

2006-12-29T20:05:00.000-08:00

Age: 21
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 200 lbs
Drafted: 6th round in 2006 out of Purdue
Position: Shortstop/Third Base
Bats: Right

Tools: The only tool that Hilligoss lacks is power. He has an incredibly efficient swing, which will result in high batting averages throughout his career. It is quick, mechanically sound, and he compliments it with superior strike zone judgement. A college scout once called him "The best pure hitter I have ever seen". That said, for all the praise he profiles to hit less than 10 home runs in a season, slugging near .400. His defense is excellent at shortstop, even though he was moved to 3rd base temporarily for the short season. His arm is especially strong, and he is quite the athlete.

Performance: In three college seasons, hit he .378/.421/.521, with a 57/45 K/BB ratio and 12 in 163 games. He stole 49 bases over that time. He had mixed results in Staten Island, hitting .292/.357/.352 in a strong pitchers league. He hit 3rd for Staten Island for the whole season, racking up 36 RBIs. Pinstripes Plus labeled him the best hitter in the short season.

Outlook: Hilligoss's outlook is muddled. His three extensive seasons in college have him earmarked for Tampa next season, with the possibility of a quick promotion to Trenton. There have been strong rumors that he will be converted to catcher. I can certainly understand this, considering his compact frame and light bat. I can't see Hilligoss being useful as a 3rd baseman, where he played in many of the his Staten Island games, due to the lack of power. That said, he could certainly put some muscle on and acquire Boggs-like power. His plate discipline and athletic build are a strong combination, which will at least assure him a major league bench spot one day.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health A-, Comparison: Craig Counsell

Prospect Profile: Cody Ehlers (#25)

2006-12-29T20:02:00.000-08:00

Age: 24 (25 in April)
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 185 lbs
Drafted: 11th Round in 2003 out of the University of Missouri
Bats: Left

Tools: Cody is a rare small body 1st baseman. While not fast, he has quick reactions and glove work. His arm is strong (he was used as a pitcher on rare occassions in college) and accurate. He lacks slugging power, although has excellent bat control to both gaps. Mostly due to size he does not profile to hit a ton of home runs. His plate discipline is absolutely stellar, showing a mature and systematic approach to the plate. He never gets rattled, hitting very well with runners in scoring position.

Performance: Cody had a mixed college career. He stayed on for four years at Missouri. His freshman and junior years were not strong, but the other two absolutely were. He found his home run stroke as a senior, batting .364/.460/.693/ with 18 home runs (equal to 47 over 162 games). After being drafted, he faltered in short season ball, hitting below .200. Ehlers showed enough to the front office however to bring him back, initially placing him on the Trenton spring training roster. He spent the season in Charleston, posting solid numbers. He was promoted to Tampa late in the season, where he was slow to adjust. But adjust he did, hitting .298/.375/.487 in the extreme pitchers league (suppresses offense by 12%), with 18 home runs and 108 RBIs, while playing excellent defense. He was named Tampa's MVP.

Outlook: Ehlers now faces the challenge of AA. I believe he will do very well there. Hitters relying on raw tools and free swings are usually the ones who die out in AA. Ehlers succeeds more upon excellent mechanics and judgement than tools. He doesn't have a lot of room for error, as 2007 will be his age 25 season. With any luck, he'll be on the 40 man roster in 2008, just an injury away from the majors. Ehlers doesn't project to hit more than 20 home runs, so his starting ability at 1st is questionable, but his solid defense and ability to get on base could give him an opportunity to have a solid career.

Grades: Ceiling C, Health A-, Comparison: Kevin Millar.

Prospect Profile: Francisco Castillo (#27)

2006-12-29T20:01:00.000-08:00

Age: 20 (just turned it this month)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 195 lbs
Drafted: International Free Agent out of the D.R. in 2005
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: R

Stuff: Castillo has plenty of it. He throws a moving fastball at 95 mph. He throws it with smooth delivery with some deception to it. He throws a plus slider to compliment it, and is working on a changeup. Overall, everything he throws is very raw and will likely improve as he ages/.

Command: Castillo, being so raw, needs to do some serious work on the command of his fastball. He walked more than a batter every three innings over his past two seasons in the minors. He can blow the 95 mph heat by A ball batters, but will need to locate it to beat more advanced ones. He commands his slider better than his fastball, but both are very raw.

Outlook: Castillo is a very hard pitcher to predict, purely because he is so young and inexperienced. Castillo will likely start the season in Charleston, and will do his best to mature his command and changeup. He is still very young with very little minor league experience under his belt, so he has time to make mistakes. Scout.com has speculated that Castillo is destined for the bullpen, where his two excellent pitches could make him a good setup man. It is also suggested that with age and shorter outing his fastball could climb a few mph higher.

Grades: Ceiling A, Health B, Comparison: To be honest, I don't know.

Prospect Profile: David Robertson (#28)

2006-12-29T19:58:00.000-08:00

Age: 21
Height: 5'11
Weight: 175 lbs
Drafted: 17th Round out of U. Alabama in 2006
Position: Relief Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: David Robertson is on this list purely out of stuff. He throws both a 2 seamer and a 4 seamer in the mid 90s very consistently. He also throws a plus power slider in the mid 80s, along with an average cut fastball. The movement on all of his pitches is excellent. In his 127.2 college innings Robertson struck out 170 batters.

Command: In those same college innings, Robertson managed to walk 65. Scouts believe that the walking is not resulting from wildness but from nibbling. A transition to wood bats could help him immensely (similar to what the transition did to George Kontos), as he will be able to use the inside third of the plate to his advantage. Still, his control is what keeps him from being on the level of the other two Yankee big time relief prospects Mark Melancon and J.B. Cox.

Outlook: Robertson signed too late in 2006 to play in the minor leagues. Prior to signing, he absolutely dominated the Cape Cod League, earning playoff MVP honors. Robertson pitched 15 innings against the elite college hitters, striking out 15 while not allowing a hit or walk. This is significant because Robertson absolutely dominated wooden bats, and shined when the pressure was most severe (He struck out his final 6 batters to win the title). I think that Robertson may start in Charleston purely because of the loaded Tampa pitching staff, but he could be pushed up too. 2007 will be a telling year for him. If he can control his walks, Robertson could be an elite closer prospect in the minor leagues.

Grades: Ceiling A-, Health B, Comparison: Ferdnando Rodney.

Prospect Profile: Bronson Sardinha (#29)

2006-12-29T19:53:00.000-08:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 195 lbs
Drafted: 1st Round in 2001 out of High School
Position: Corner Outfielder (Who has also played 3b and SS in the past)
Bats: Left
Throws: Right

Tools: Sardinha has the classic physical tools of a 1st round shortstop out of High School. He is agile, fleet of foot, and has a strong arm. He reportedly handled 3b pretty well, but was moved to the outfield due to Eric Duncan and Alex Rodriguez. Sardinha shows moderate power (20 HR), and extremely good walking ability (Iso Patience of .083). His weakness is in the ability to hit for average (.269 career average) due to striking out too much (127 K per 162 games).

Performance: Sardinha has been very inconsistent in the minor leagues, in part due to frequent position change. The Yankees had him set in the outfield for awhile, then moved him back to 3rd prior to the Alex Rodriguez trade. They then moved him to left field. Sardinha's career minor league line of is .269/.352/.398. He took a major step forward in the later part of 2006, hitting .286/.365/.492 after earning a call up to Columbus. He's finally meeting expectations, and still has his youth.

Outlook: I am a big fan of Sardinha. The only reason that I do not rate him higher is that no one really agrees with me. I can see Sardinha putting together a few hitting seasons similar to what Johnny Damon did this this season, minus the stolen bases. It seems like he has been around forever, even though he is only 23 years old. The one knock against Sardinha is that he may be left exposed to the Rule V draft this offseason. Luckily for him, the new CBA rule changes give the Yankees a little more breathing room in this regard. I could see Sardinha coming into play in 2008 as a call up.

Grades: Ceiling C+, Health B+, Chance of Reaching Majors 40%. Comparison: Pre-Steroids Luis Gonzalez

Prospect Profile: Alan Horne (#30)

2006-12-29T19:50:00.000-08:00

Age: 23
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 195 lbs
Drafted: 11th Round in 2005 out of the University of Florida
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right

Stuff: Alan Horne features a lightly sinking fastball topping out at 94-96 mph. He throws a plus 12-6 curveball that has very strong bite to it. He also throws an above average slider. He is a very experienced pitcher who knows how to use all of his pitches. His stuff is top-notch. Without his other problems, Horne would be a high end pitching prospect.

Command: Alan Horne has been very inconsistent with his command since he had Tommy John surgery in 2004. When Horne is on, his stuff is dominating. When he is off, he has a lot of trouble throwing any of his three pitches for strikes. He has looked intimidated at times in Tampa. That said, his stuff is solid and if he learns not to nibble he could become a serious A.J. Burnett type pitcher.

Outlook: Horne could be really dangerous as he develops. With a little more muscle on his frame, Horne could be topping out at 97-98 mph. Horne was drafted in the 1st round by Cleveland a few years ago for a reason. The injury concerns and general surplus of Yankee starting pitching could land him in the bullpen if he fails as a starter. Horne should start 2007 in Tampa, but could move to Trenton fairly quickly.

Grades: Ceiling: A-, Health C-, Chance of Reaching Majors 30%. Comparison: A.J. Burnett

Testing, Testing, Testing

2006-12-28T06:42:00.001-08:00