Monday, February 26, 2007

Fantasy League Draft

Yep, we've drafted. This was a huge league, with 15 teams, and we somehow got our draft done in under 2 hours. Good job guys!

I drafted a pretty risky team, but with a lot of upside.

1. Albert Pujols - First overall pick, gives me a lot of room to take risks in the 2-4 rounds.

2. Hanley Ramirez - Since I was able to get Pujols, I was able to take a decent risk with my late 2nd round pick. Ramirez is going to steal me a lot of bases, but the rest of his performance is up in the air. He could give me 20 home runs, 50 steals, 120 runs, and a .300 average, or he could give me a .270 average, 90 runs, 10 home runs, and 50 steals. It's a risk worth taking I think. Plus, he had a killer second half, solving his strikeout problems. Premium position too.

3. Bobby Abreu - Since my strategy usually revolves around a lot of risk, I needed a solid all around hitter to go with Pujols. In such a deep league, outfielders are going to be at a major premium, so he helps me there. With any luck, I'll get .290/100/20/100/30 out of him.

4. Felix Hernandez - A risky pick, but I love Felix. He's a 2.50+ GB/FB guy, who could strike out over a batter per inning. That's Kevin Brown type stuff. Seattle's ballpark will help him too. He's a breakout pick, but I think pretty safe to do so. Gives me 5 category support.

5. Rickie Weeks - My first real gamble. Weeks was killed by injuries last season, but still managed to hit .279. I'm betting that his .320/.435/.655 line at AAA at age 22 was not an abberation. Weeks hasn't had injury concerns in the past, and is ready for a breakout. He'll also lead off in front of a decent little Brewers lineup. He could give him .290/100/20/60/40. He's a risk, but I think he will work out for me big. 2b is really thin this year too.

6. Trevor Hoffman - I needed a closer, and the Padres use Hoffman in a way that is perfect for fantasy baseball. 40 saves are mine! I'm crossing my fingers that he doesn't break down, because he's my only real closer.

7. Aaron Harang - People didn't realize it, but Harang led the NL in strikeouts. If the Reds ever learn to play defense, he'll be one of the better fantasy picks in the NL. He is durable too.

8. Raul Ibanez - Kind of a risky pick. I'm pretty sure that Ibanez, batting 4th for the Mariners, will give me at least .290/80/25/90, but he could end up giving me 2nd round numbers.

9. Mike Piazza - Kind of a value pick. He got killed by Petco last year - he was a monster away from there. Combine that with the designated hitter, and we'll see Piazza put up some nice numbers for a catcher.

10. Adrian Beltre - With Alex Gordon snatched away from me, I had to find a 3rd baseman. Beltre is a good as a bet as any left at the time, and has a pretty high ceiling. His 2nd half was awesome last year, and he may have a chip on his shoulder with that big contract. Not happy about him batting 2nd though. Hopefully he'll be moved to 3rd once Guillen falters.

11. Jonathon Papelbon - Closer or Starter, Papelbon should be pretty good. I'm crossing my fingers (fantasy wise, not as a Yankee fan) that he'll be somewhat healthy. It still hurts to draft a Sox player though.

12. Frank Thomas - I didn't expect Thomas to be around this long. Hey, I'll take my 40 HR and 120 RBIs if Thomas is healthy. Sure, it's a big risk, but could pay off. Once he found his stroke last year, he raked. He won't have 2 years of rust to shake off in 2007. Toronto should give him some RBI opportunies and protection that he didn't get in Oakland.

13. Freddy Garcia - With so many risky starting picks, I needed a good fall back, reliable option. Garcia just doesn't get injured, and is moving to the National League. His ERA should fall below 4.00. He won't strike a ton out, but the Phillies will help him win some games.

14. Jeremey Hermida - There weren't a whole lot of good OF remaining, and I may need some stolen bases. Hermida is a reasonable bet to be healthy and break out in 2007. A risk, but I can always find some 3rd OF on the Pirates or somewhere that breaks out.

15. Bob Howry - Solid ratios out of a RP, and Howry might take over the Cub's closer job in 2007. I'm not entirely happy with the pick, but maybe it'll work out.

16. Jeremy Sowers - One of the game's top young pitchers, but often overlooked. Cleveland is going to support him on offense and defense a lot, and Sowers has a head start with 13 MLB starts under his belt. His WHIP will be solid, and his milb numbers are crazy.

17. Justin Duchscherer - Another Bob Howry type. If Street goes down or is ineffective, Justin will get saves. He'll provide me solid all around relief work.

18. Joe Saunders - Kind of a bad pick, but I'm a Saunders fan. I think he will be a solid MLB starter. This is kind of a "pick of personal priviledge"

19. Jason Jennings - Between moving away from Coors and the great Astros defense, I'm hoping that Jennings can repeat last year's success. He's another solid starter who I can slip in and out daily.

20. Boof Bonser - Can you believe that this guy was traded with Liriano and Nathan or A.J.? I can't. If he breaks out, I'll have a really solid pitcher. Lots of strikeouts too.

21. Anthony Reyes - Another young pitcher who I am hoping will break out. If two of the four guys I picked work out, I'm set. Reyes is all but promised a spot in St. Louis this year, and will cash in on his potential.

22. Roberto Hernandez - Hoping that he gets the saves for Cleveland, because I'm light on them.

The key to fantasy baseball is correctly predicting future success. I think I've taken a lot of risk which will correctly predict future success. Matt Holliday and Brandon Webb served me well last year.